Oh, yes, and also civil war. Here’s a preview of what to expect in Iraq after ISIS is mostly run out of the country.
Set the scene: the country formerly known as Iraq was basically an steaming pile of ethnic/religious tension in 2003 when the U.S. invaded. It was divided among three broad groups we didn’t seem to know much about then, but damn well do now: Sunnis, Shias and Kurds. The Kurds, who always wanted to be independent, like from nearly the time of the dinosaurs always, saw their opportunity and broke away and are now essentially their own country. The Sunnis and Shia both wanted the same land and resources and freaking hate each other, and so have been fighting one another since 2003 when the post-U.S. invasion chaos unleashed them.
Among the many reasons the U.S. plans for Iraq failed was that it took the United States years to realize they were sitting squat in the middle of a civil war, hated by both sides as much as both sides hated them. The U.S. exit strategy, as it was, was a last gasp (The Surge) try to balance the power between Sunni and Shia and when that failed, run for the exit and allow Iran to push the Shias into power. The Sunnis took the bait from ISIS to be their protector from the Shias and zowie! it’s Mad Max in 2016.
A bit simplified, (duh) but that’s basically the outline.
When a couple of years ago the U.S. woke up and decided ISIS was the worst thingie ever, the U.S. also leaped into bed with Iran and the Shias to smite Islamic State. The reason was that the U.S.-paid for Iraqi National “Army” collapsed overnight and the Americans were desperate for someone to fight ISIS. The Shia were more than happy to help chase ISIS, and along the way, any other Sunnies they could find, out of Iraq.
So it is no surprise in any way that we learn since Shia militias recaptured most of (Sunni) Diyala from ISIS in 2015, they have dominated the province, with minimal oversight from the Iraqi state. As a result, the ultra-sectarian Shia groups have been free to attack Sunni civilians with impunity. The effect has been quite clear: Diyala has been depopulated of Sunnis.
Anywhere else in the world the U.S. would label this ethnic cleansing, and say it was a forerunner of genocide. It is, and likely will be, we just don’t want to call it that for PR purposes. You know, one person’s evil thugs are another’s freedom fighters.
And Diyala’s problems point to something bigger: While the militias are especially powerful in Diyala, they wield enormous influence throughout Iraq due to their role in the fight on ISIS. Their influence is doing serious harm to the prospects of Sunni-Shia reconciliation in Iraq — which is the only way to ensure ISIS’s long-term defeat and will happen only after pigs fly over a frozen Hell.
So in a way, if ISIS is not defeated in Iraq, that will be the good news in the long view. As Forrest Gump, who appears to be running American foreign policy at present, once said “Stupid is what stupid does.”
Copyright © 2020. All rights reserved. The views expressed here are solely those of the author(s) in their private capacity.
chuck said...
1“Life is like a box of chocolates”. Wage Peace and Justice. “I will not speculate” Obombers answer to Helen Thomas asking does any country in the middle east have Nukes?!
02/13/16 8:47 AM | Comment Link
John Poole said...
2Samantha Power looks away from the Middle East today-much too messy and complicated for another major tome on genocide. If Hillary becomes POTUS Power might be Secretary of State -an act of forgiveness towards an old enemy.
02/13/16 9:33 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
3I know The Donald is a con-artist, BUT can you imagine what he would do to the Hillary State Department? Talk about Scent of an Old Woman:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMx-Lv_eZ3s
02/13/16 9:43 AM | Comment Link
Bruce said...
4Get US the Fars Outta THEIR COUNTRIES and let Allah sort ’em out!
02/13/16 12:06 PM | Comment Link
Kyzl Orda said...
5Another example of a problem that could have been better mediated that was utterly ignored by our ‘experienced’ Secretary of State now running for president.
When ex President Clinton was in office and the massacres raged in Rwanda and former Yugoslavia, a professor of foreign policy termed the Clinton Administration followed a ‘Duck’ policy — whenever there was a controversy or problem to solve, they’d ‘duck’ it.
That seems to be the theme for the Secretary’s time as well. ‘See something, duck it’
02/13/16 1:12 PM | Comment Link
Kyzl Orda said...
6And if the Republicans harp too much, then bomb it. Bombing Saddam Hussein did help boost ex President Clinton’s poll ratings. A foreign policy should be more functional than ‘duck it’ or ‘bomb it’
As for Rwanda and former Yugoslavia, you can fast forward to where a former Secretary at the time, ALbright, comes out of the closet to proclaim being a feminist and how supporting other candidates in the Democratic party means betraying the true feminist cause. Yeah, same ‘feminist’ ALbright who did ZERO when the mass rapes of Rwandan and Bosnian women occurred.
02/13/16 1:20 PM | Comment Link
John Poole said...
7Madeline All Dim is hardly a FSO- female shaped object- (barely) to lecture women on what is the responsible thing to do. I’d listen to Leona Helmsley before All Dim.
02/13/16 2:52 PM | Comment Link
Kyzl Orda said...
8Helmsley and Albright seem to be cut from the same cloth
02/14/16 3:10 AM | Comment Link
Jhoover said...
9““So Bush’s original sin was invading in 2003 and Obama’s original sin was not respecting the Iraqi election’s results or the constitutional process in 2010, without any shadow of a doubt.” ”
“the Iraqi government is fully penetrated by these Iranian-sponsored groups, and many of them are now in charge of the security services, they’re on the front lines with these militias, they’re receiving American weapons, they’re receiving American tanks, they have American air support, they have American diplomatic cover. So in this case we are backing the Iranian-commanded Shia militias to defeat ISIS. But the Iraqi security forces and the Iranian-backed militias are guilty of the same atrocities and war crimes that ISIS is known for. They are beheading individuals, they are torturing, and evidence of this emerges every day. And yet they are receiving billions of dollars of advanced military equipment from the United States.”
“If you are leveraging one radical, militant Islamist group to defeat another radical, militant Islamist group then what you’re gonna still end up with is a radical, militant Islamist group. We are creating monsters and these monsters will come back to haunt us.”
Longest-Serving U.S. Diplomat In Iraq: Obama Gave Us ISIS
02/14/16 3:13 AM | Comment Link
Jhoover said...
10Hellfire Missile Mistakenly Sent to Cuba Has Been Returned to U.S.!!!
May one day we will see same Missiles in hand of ISIS or ISL by Mistake??
http://www.wsj.com/articles/hellfire-missile-mistakenly-sent-to-cuba-has-been-returned-to-u-s-1455390176
02/14/16 3:16 AM | Comment Link
Jhoover said...
11The novel alludes to a real-world case, he says: a scandalous murder whose full story remains untold. Mr. Makiya says that he took his inspiration from the fatal 2003 stabbing of Abdul Majid al-Khoei, a Shiite cleric of distinguished lineage. Khoei’s son and others have accused the radical anti-U.S. Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr of involvement in the murder; a warrant for Mr. Sadr’s arrest was issued in 2004, but it was never executed, and he remains a free man. In “The Rope,” Mr. Makiya offers a fictionalized version of the murder in which Iraq’s ruling elite covers up the crime by quashing the warrant to arrest the character based on Mr. Sadr.
Kanan Makiya: How Iraq Went Wrong
http://www.wsj.com/articles/kanan-makiya-how-iraq-went-wrong-1455312166
Well, Kanan Makiya himself defending Iranian proxy man, both al-Khoei (Iranian) and Moqtada al-Sadr (Iranian Proxy) both are part of the problem inside Iraq.
Makiya looks never read what Emma Sky what she siad:’We had to deal with people who had blood on their hands’??
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jul/16/inside-iraq-emma-sky
02/14/16 3:29 AM | Comment Link
Kyzl Orda said...
12Interesting Guardian interview. Kinda of ironic Sky’s comment we had to “destroy the nation state “(while going about fardh al qanoon) in order to create the caliphate. Guessing she meant a more euphemistic caliphate than the one that eventually filled in the vacuum
02/14/16 7:25 PM | Comment Link
GregJ said...
13It’s “Stupid is as stupid does.”
Which is like “Handsome is as handsome does, as we say in the Shire.” Which was said by Meriadoc about Aragorn in the “Fellowship of the Rings” by J.R.R. Tolkien.
02/14/16 9:51 PM | Comment Link
Links 15/2/2016: Zorin OS 11 Lite and Business, Meizu Pro 5 Ubuntu | Techrights said...
14[…] U.S. Supported Shia Militias in Iraq Lead Ethnic Cleansing […]
02/15/16 5:51 AM | Comment Link
bloodypitchfork said...
15quote”Khedery’s term of choice – “America sat back” – encapsulates Obama’s Iraq failures. The Bush invasion was the opposite of America sitting back, as was the Bush surge under Gen. Petreaus. Obama claimed to support a democratic Iraq, but he not only sat back and allowed it to slip away; he caused conditions that led to the emergence of the most oppressive and dangerous Islamist terrorist threat in the world.”unquote
Obama’s Iraq failures? On the contrary. He did EXACTLY what his overlords told him to do. Create the next generation terrorists. After all..teh WOT MUST GO ON!!!! Fortunes to be made and all that jazz you know. Meanwhile, the Lords of War high five while clinking glasses of $1k per bottle Champagne at the top of the Burg Kalifa.
quote”And Diyala’s problems point to something bigger: While the militias are especially powerful in Diyala, they wield enormous influence throughout Iraq due to their role in the fight on ISIS. Their influence is doing serious harm to the prospects of Sunni-Shia reconciliation in Iraq — which is the only way to ensure ISIS’s long-term defeat and will happen only after pigs fly over a frozen Hell.”unquote
When Pigs Fly Over A Frozen Hell. Seen on the lords of war “mission accomplished” party banner. To which they give unanimous approval for use at the up and coming Arms and Weapons trade show in Dubai.
bartender..what’s on the Teh Veh..besides the debates…er…wait..turn on the GOP’s debate. I need to laugh my ass off. Now, give me two shots of 100prf Frozen Hell and a bottle of FlyingPigs beer chaser.
02/15/16 10:02 AM | Comment Link
bloodypitchfork said...
16ps..quote”As Forrest Gump, who appears to be running American foreign policy at present, once said “Stupid is what stupid does.””unquote
That’s exactly what they wanted the world to think. No one could be this dumb. I’d submit the Lords of War are laughing their asses off while reading their 2015 4thQ profits.
02/15/16 10:25 AM | Comment Link
Jhoover said...
17The Petraeus Myth
http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=9284
The man and his myth
http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21566661-questionable-legacy-general-david-petraeus-man-and-his-myth
02/17/16 2:20 AM | Comment Link
ISIS claims suicide attack that killed 27 in east Iraq - RiyadhVision said...
18[…] U.S. Supported Shia Militias in Iraq Lead Ethnic Cleansing […]
03/1/16 4:01 AM | Comment Link