• Sorry, No War in North Korea

    August 8, 2017

    Tags: ,
    Posted in: Military, Trump



    I’m so sorry to disappoint so many people, but there is not going to be a war with North Korea.


    No, no, Trump is not going to start a war there. And, no, Kim Jong Un is not going to start a war there. It is not going to happen, despite a cottage industry of pundits who seem to really believe war is only moments away.


    Let’s start with the obvious. A war on the Korean peninsula benefits no one and is really, really bad for everyone (we’ll get to the irrational madman theory in a moment.)

    Any conflict means the end of North Korea, and the end of the Kim dynasty. The U.S. will win any fight, nuclear or not, and Kim and everyone with any power or money in the North knows that. North Korea has no reason to start a war that will end in its own destruction. The people there with power and money do not want to give those things up.

    South Korea, same thing. They will also be destroyed in whole or in part, and, should much survive in the south, they will also get stuck with the mass of refugees flowing out of whatever is left of North Korea. China will not want war for much of the same reason, plus the loss of the buffer state the North represents, plus the desire not to have a smoking radioactive ruin on its border.

    The U.S. does not want war because of all of the above, the likelihood that ally Japan will get trashed along the way, the likely global economic depression that will follow and/or because no one in Washington will bet the house that the North Koreans don’t have a submarine that might get close to Hawaii, a way to deliver a dirty bomb somewhere, or that a glow-in-the-dark North won’t spark off a worldwide radioactive climate crisis.

    Because see, how unlike every other shooting war of the last 70 years including everything in the Middle East, war on the Korean peninsula is different. North Korea is a nuclear state, and that changes everything. Deterrence works, it really does. Ask the Cold War about that.


    And that leaves us with the madman theory, the idea that either Trump or Kim or maybe both are irrational, impulsive crazy people who could just one night say, to hell with it, let’s push the button. The problem with this theory is that nothing in history supports it.

    The Kim dynasty has been in power some 70 years, three generations. They have weathered conventional war, sanctions, and numerous war-like acts. They have dealt with famine. They survived the fall of the Soviet Union and generations of American governments. They did not act irrationally. You don’t stay in power for seven decades acting irrationally or impulsively. You stay in power and hold your own against multiple superpowers by careful actions and good choices. There is nothing — nothing — to support any contention Kim might act any more irrationally than his nuclear-armed dad did.

    Sorry to say it, but same for Trump. You hate him, I know that. He is not bright. But same as Kim, he has decades of actions that show he knows how to handle things. He ran a company, he made some money, he got himself elected president. He’s been in office now some seven months and absolutely none of the apocalyptic predictions people have been puking up on the Internet since November have happened.

    Neither Trump nor Kim will wake up for cocoa and push a button like Dr. Evil and start WWIII.

    So relax. There are other things to worry about. Say a Chernobyl-like nuclear accident in North Korea that sends millions of refugees into South Korea and irradiates Japan as air currents blanket Tokyo with glowing dust.



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    Copyright © 2017. All rights reserved. The views expressed here are solely those of the author(s) in their private capacity. Follow me on Twitter!

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  • Recent Comments

    • RICH BAUER said...

      1

      Put two crazies in a room and, of course, nothing bad will happen. Blessed are The Peacekeepers. How many nukes does NK have?

      04/21/17 7:29 AM | Comment Link

    • RICH BAUER said...

      2

      No way the NK could smuggle a nuke into NYC and blow up Trump’s towers like The Peacemaker. The US would certainly track the source of the exploded bomb like The Sum Of All Fears. Only in your dreams, Hollyweird. I wrote a script about a Colombian narcosub that was used to smuggle a NK nuke into the US. Comrade Mitch is arranging the financing.

      04/21/17 7:43 AM | Comment Link

    • Mitch said...

      3

      Peter.

      I really hope your right. Logic is sound. Motives are clear.

      But Kim is as crazy as Rich Bauer.

      PS.

      Weren’t you coming back to the States to go to Hoolyweird???

      Read an editorial earlier that had you written all over it…. The term used was ” alt- reality’s” and “unhinged”

      In fact…. Here’s your sign.

      http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2017/04/20/sean-hannity-alt-left-becomes-increasingly-unhinged-as-trump-follows-through.html

      M

      04/21/17 8:51 AM | Comment Link

    • RICH BAUER said...

      4

      “Columbia Countdown” scenario:

      What will stop NK from conducting its 6th nuke test? Nothing.

      What will stop Trumpie from dropping MOAB no.2 on Yongbyon nuclear weapon site? Nothing.

      What would stop NK, without a missile capable of launching a nuke, from smuggling a nuke into the US? Nothing.

      04/21/17 9:09 AM | Comment Link

    • RICH BAUER said...

      5

      So a 7 kiloton nuke destroys lower NYC and the financial center. Who does the US attack? Round up the Usual Suspects? NK? Why not ISIS? AQ? Iran? Why not FARC? Trump just met with Uribe and Pastrana to blow up the COLOMBIA Peace Treaty. Iraq? No, that WMD ship has sailed. The danger is there are too many potential suspects, and THAT would encourage one of them to do it. LIke the JFK assassination there is safety in numbers.

      04/21/17 11:02 AM | Comment Link

    • RICH BAUER said...

      6

      Never mention North Korea and “command and control” in the same sentence.

      04/21/17 11:08 AM | Comment Link

    • Mitch said...

      7

      So. Rich.

      I see you have been do an awful lot of thinking about not so nice ways to destroy the United States.
      Thank you so much for getting so many to think about it…. NOT!!!!!

      M

      04/21/17 11:12 AM | Comment Link

    • RICH BAUER said...

      8

      Fareed Zakaria agrees with Peter. That should really worry Peter.

      04/21/17 11:31 AM | Comment Link

    • RICH BAUER said...

      9

      How many nukes can a sub hold?

      04/21/17 11:37 AM | Comment Link

    • Mitch said...

      10

      Yep Rich…… He’s doing a horrible job.

      http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39670101

      M

      04/21/17 1:05 PM | Comment Link

    • RICH BAUER said...

      11

      Mitch, Well Hell, someone should think behind the next checker move. Remember the great thinkers like Condi Rice who could never imagine what terrorists could do on 9-11 before they did it. But okay, Dumbest Country on the Planet, go back to sleep.

      04/21/17 1:35 PM | Comment Link

    • RICH BAUER said...

      12

      Answer to my own question: Cartel subs can carry 10 tons of product. A 50 kiloton nuke weighs about 700 pounds.

      04/21/17 3:34 PM | Comment Link

    • Mitch said...

      13

      Rich.

      Wrong…. Again…..way wrong… On all points…..

      Starting with the payload…. You have to look at warheads per device.

      And…. As for not thinking of it before it happened…..

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=em-share_video_user&v=MmbPh3u7_q0#

      Suggest you watch it…

      Like I said… Why give bad people ideas in a public fourm.

      M

      04/21/17 4:01 PM | Comment Link

    • Mitch said...

      14

      Btw…

      Peter…… Many points….

      You sure as hell got Rich all fired up with this article.

      Bravo.

      M

      04/21/17 4:03 PM | Comment Link

    • RICH BAUER said...

      15

      Yo Peter,

      Per my cousin Paul, “Good to know that the State Department of Office of Professional Responsibility isn’t the only staffed with idiots:”

      — DHS OIG is investigating whether the investigation conducted by CBP’s Office of Professional Responsibility relating to the @ALT_USCIS Twitter account was improper in any way, including whether CBP abused its authority in issuing the March 14, 2017 summons to Twitter. DHS OIG is also reviewing potential broader misuse of summons authority at the Department and/or its component,

      OPR, where careers go to die.

      04/21/17 5:35 PM | Comment Link

    • Mitch said...

      16

      Yo Rich…

      So… You still work for the State Department…

      It does explain why you have so much time…

      And…

      It also explains WHY the State Department is so Utterly Screwed UP !!!!

      M

      04/21/17 5:40 PM | Comment Link

    • Mitch said...

      17

      Yo Rich.

      It also explains why you hate Trump so much.

      It has absolutely nothing to do with what is right and proper for the US and Humanity….

      It is because your scared for your job that let’s you sit on the net, all day and night and never accomplish a damn thing…

      John Poole has to be dying laughing right now.

      M

      04/21/17 5:44 PM | Comment Link

    • RICH BAUER said...

      18

      Mitch, wrong again.

      04/21/17 6:37 PM | Comment Link

    • Mitch said...

      19

      Rich…

      Its either that or your an ISIS propaganda specialist.

      I’m betting State Department.

      M

      04/21/17 9:27 PM | Comment Link

    • hostile intelligence - Occurrences said...

      20

      […] “Sorry, No War in North Korea”.  I think this is a given, except that it is only American exceptionalism which would lead anybody to conclude that the North Korean regime would be replaced.  The North Korean strategy over decades has been to dig in and survive just long enough that it can inflict enough damage on South Korea and Japan that the Americans would have to back off before trillions of dollars of the world economy disappears. […]

      04/22/17 1:56 AM | Comment Link

    • Mitch said...

      21

      Rich.

      In Britain they call this the “Kate- Effect “….

      Can’t wait to here what you call it.

      https://moneyish.com/splurge/this-7-year-old-childrens-book-now-costs-1100-thanks-to-melania-trump/

      M

      04/22/17 5:43 PM | Comment Link

    • chuck said...

      22

      Today, the Creech protest begins. When Drones Fly Children Die.

      04/23/17 7:32 AM | Comment Link

    • chuck said...

      23

      Remember “Freedom Fries”.

      04/23/17 9:08 AM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      24

      Just to be on the safe side, we should exchange Russia’s agent, Trumpie, for agent, Ed Snowden.

      04/23/17 1:34 PM | Comment Link

    • chuck said...

      25

      Will the u.s. go after Snowden formally the day when Chelsea is free? The u.s. media is State U.S. T.V. . Stay tuned… Have a nice day.

      04/23/17 4:01 PM | Comment Link

    • chuck said...

      26

      Watch “Collateral Damage”, and feel sick, or be a PIG.

      04/23/17 4:02 PM | Comment Link

    • Mitch said...

      27

      Rich

      How’s Berkeley???… They are nuts too.

      M

      04/23/17 6:11 PM | Comment Link

    • Mitch said...

      28

      Peter.

      I really hope your right.

      http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39644453

      M

      04/23/17 6:13 PM | Comment Link

    • John Poole said...

      29

      Putting aside the NK missile rattling for a moment is there anyone else here who thinks that Bill Clinton may not have wanted Hillary to be POTUS and found subtle ways to sabotage her chances such as the “regrettable” meeting with Loretta Lynch on a tarmac? Bill certainly didn’t need the “First Gentleman” gig and setting to continue to bedazzle and seduce foolish young women.

      04/23/17 8:52 PM | Comment Link

    • Mitch said...

      30

      John.

      Oh HELL Ya !!!!

      What do you think the discussion on his plane with Lynch was really about ?

      He has to hate her guts too.

      M

      04/23/17 10:42 PM | Comment Link

    • John Poole said...

      31

      Mitch- Comey now says he sensed Lynch would not prosecute Hillary because he felt Lynch was hoping she’d be kept on once Hillary won.
      I still think that Bill purposely went to Lynch to make it look even worse for Hillary and Obama. Bill Clinton had to known the story and incident would get out. Maybe Bill just couldn’t stand the idea of his wife being POTUS and pulling an Annie Oakley routine of “Anything you can do I can do….better”.

      04/23/17 11:13 PM | Comment Link

    • Mitch said...

      32

      John.

      Bullseye!!!!!!!

      M

      04/24/17 9:25 AM | Comment Link

    • RICH BAUER said...

      33

      “Sorry to say it, but same for Trump. You hate him, I know that. He is not bright. But same as Kim, he has decades of actions that show he knows how to handle things. He ran a company, he made some money, he got himself elected president. He’s been in office now some seven months and absolutely none of the apocalyptic predictions people have been puking up on the Internet since November have happened. Neither Trump nor Kim will wake up for cocoa and push a button like Dr. Evil and start WWIII.”

      I dont know. It would amaze you the things some people think are worth killing for:

      A Montgomery County man is facing aggravated assault and threats charges after a dispute over cucumbers Sunday at a New Holland fast food restaurant.

      Theodore L. Gunderson Jr., 58, of Lansdale, threw a salad at and threatened to kill an employee around 4 p.m. at Wendy’s, 804 W. Main St., according to an arrest affidavit filed by New Holland police Officer Michael Specht.

      Gunderson was upset because he felt the salad didn’t contain enough cucumbers and told the employee, “If I had a gun or a knife you would be the first to go,” the affidavit states.

      08/8/17 8:07 PM | Comment Link

    • Manny said...

      34

      Well..We can do like we did in the ME and South America..Do The unthinkable..Threaten them with Democracy..

      08/9/17 3:15 AM | Comment Link

    • jim hruska said...

      35

      PVB,
      the US has been screwing w NOKO/KO since 1871, and we still can’t get it right.
      we’ve been in the Philipines since 1898+/- and isis has recentl taken a town there.
      isn’t it time to admit that generations of strategic meanderings have produce naught?
      jim

      08/9/17 11:55 AM | Comment Link

    • RICH BAUER said...

      36

      Produced naught? Failure is always an option in the military sales biz.

      08/9/17 12:38 PM | Comment Link

    • StarkNakedTruth said...

      37

      John Poole…

      Bill purposefully sabotaged his wife?

      There is a certain amount of smug satisfaction I get even considering the possibility.

      In plain speak: Payback is a real bitch.

      08/9/17 1:45 PM | Comment Link

    • RICH BAUER said...

      38

      This just in: Trump top aides advise media to ignore his unscripted comments about bombing North Korea. They ignore Trump and advise that everyone else should too.

      08/9/17 6:19 PM | Comment Link

    • StarkNakedTruth said...

      39

      Rich…

      Ok. I’ll ignore Trump’s comments.

      Do we also ignore any missiles seen racing towards Guam?

      Just need to know the protocol.

      08/9/17 6:58 PM | Comment Link

    • RICH BAUER said...

      40

      Stark, be an Iron Man and start running South. New York and DC are ground zero. I have a place in Bogota, Colombia. It is out of the wind pattern for any nuke strike in the US. Mitch is on the timeshare list. Rent a three bedroom in Bogota for Only 500 bucks a month.

      08/9/17 8:53 PM | Comment Link

    • John Poole said...

      41

      Stark Naked. Latest focus by many investigative journalists is on Loretta and her email alias account.
      I know it seems wild to many but I feel Bubba did not want to see his wife as POTUS and the “inadvertent” parked airfoil meeting with Lynch was his proactive way of sabotaging her campaign.

      08/9/17 10:15 PM | Comment Link

    • John Poole said...

      42

      Trump’s personal habits seem lurid but when you think of the lurid life style of the Clintons. We’ll learn more about Obama’s lurid doings eventually. It is all appalling to me but I’ve always been too much of an idealist.

      08/10/17 7:23 AM | Comment Link

    • John Poole said...

      43

      Old stuff but I disagree about no war with North Korea. There are B1 bomber pilots who would love to fly over NK and drop a nuke. How can that be? Easy. only a psychopath would decide to be a bomber pilot with a nuclear load. Duty, Country, God! My guess is that all of them are religiously insane which means anything can happen. Yeah, sure there are safeguards- they’d need permission and the arming codes etc. Bad stuff can happen when religiously insane people gleefully read their Revelation daily. Trump already has plenty of religiously insane ministers saying God wants him to take out NK.

      08/12/17 10:12 AM | Comment Link

    • John Poole said...

      44

      Just because sane people do not want a nuclear war to start
      that won’t necessarily stop one from inadvertently starting. Yeah, nuking NK would be had for business for everyone but ther are plenty of military personnel who will follow orders to strike. They are the obeyers. Trump is powerless on his own to do anything. He needs obeyers and damned if the military isn’t full of them. Awful stuff can happen. Just watch THE BEDFORD INCIDENT.

      08/12/17 10:17 AM | Comment Link

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