• Why Trump Will Win

    January 31, 2024

    Tags: , , , , ,
    Posted in: Biden, Democracy, Trump

    Gloom consumes America. Some 73 percent of respondents say the United States is on the wrong track, the highest portion since 1989, when that polling question was first asked. In similar polls, there’s been a prolonged downward trend in Americans’ satisfaction with the direction of the country, from a peak of 71 percent in 1999 to just 22 percent today. Biden’s 39 percent approval is the lowest of any president running for a second term a year out from the election. Inflation hit 8.9 percent. The cost of rent and food rose two or three times as much as incomes.

    So who believes Joe Biden and his running dogs in the liberal media when they say things are actually OK? What tiny 28 percent of America are they talking to? A whole intellectual industry developed to support Joe, making excuses why the dumb Americans in the heartland don’t see how well Bidenomics has left things for them. The industry has come up with three explanations. See if they make sense.

    It’s the Media, Stupid. This is part of a bigger problem, presupposing most of the American interior is made of dummies who believe everything they hear on places like Fox, part of an outrage industry. Never mind kitchen table economics, it’s all in your head, idiot.

    Referral Syndrome. This hypothesis comes from the Wall Street Journal, which speculates Americans see so many mass shootings, so much immigration chaos, so many overdose deaths, and proxy wars they simply feel bad about everything (which, economy aside, does not bode well for the incumbent.) So when pollsters ask their views on the economy, they get a negative response, because people just feel overwhelmingly negative.

    Fatalism. Pretending the economy is just dandy wouldn’t be complete with some candy from Paul Krugman. The New York Times’ resident soothsayer claims all is well if only you could see things from the perspective of a rich, white, Nobel prize-winning New Yorker who writes gibberish for a living. Krugman also postulates Trump supporters who believe Biden stole the 2020 election are so apocalyptic that they skew the whole nation’s outlook.

    While the inflation rate may be declining somewhat, the cost of food, rent, and transportation is still higher than pre-COVID levels. Affordable housing kills in most areas. The problem for Joe is these are not problems of perception, they are disasters surrounding hard-core home economics. We’re left with the conclusion maybe the economy really is treating the bulk of non-coastal Americans poorly, the ones who could not sell burgers or clean hotel rooms via Zoom during the pandemic and the ones for whom high mortgage interest rates mean the difference between a home of their own and barely scraping by to pay the (rising) rent. It is these people who will vote Trump, or stay home, but are unlikely to vote for the Biden record on the economy. It is not perception, it is reality. People know when they can afford to feed the kids and pay the rent and when they cannot.

    In this environment, for the first time since President Grover Cleveland in 1892, voters face the choice of basically two incumbents, two candidates running on their recent performance in the White House. One was president during a time when wages rose faster than inflation, when the stock market was standardly strong, when home loan rates were accessible, and one wasn’t. But it is more than dollars and sense which will see Trump win in a fair election. It is his understanding of the America that he rode to victory in 2016, and came close to using to win in 2020.

    Think of Hillbilly Elegy if you want to take the shortcut. Or as another pundit put it, “Trump rode a wave of pessimism to the White House — pessimism his detractors did not share because he was speaking about, and to, an America they either didn’t see or understood only as a caricature. But just as with this year, when liberal elites insist that things are going well while overwhelming majorities of Americans say they are not, Trump’s unflattering view captured the mood of the country.” Trump’s thesis may be truer today than it was the first time he ran on it — polls show most young people never expect to earn what their parents do now, and deaths of despair continue to rise. People tend to notice when they are doing better in an economy, and when they are not.

    Immigration under Trump was simple, and matched a large number of Americans’ thoughts: we may have enough.  As Trump said, “A nation without borders is not a nation at all. We must have a wall. The rule of law matters!” Yet under Biden a pattern of curtailment, thought once labeled racism is now edging toward policy in sanctuary cities: we may have enough. Biden in a way should be thanked for drawing such a stark contrast between his immigration policy and Trump’s, and what the coastal elite minority hold true and what the majority of inner Americans likely believe and will express by voting for Trump.

    They understand that wall hyperbole aside, enforcing one’s borders is a requirement of nationhood. Check out the shelters and sidewalks of Manhattan and Chicago, where it is obvious Biden’s immigration policy is a failure. Trump’s message was crudely delivered but astonishingly accurate, at least to those willing to see through the former to the latter. Call him a bigot, or a racist, or a fascist, but he was right about controlling the border. In fact, every other country in the world does so for itself.

    In the broader picture, there are a lot of people who believe immigrants threaten jobs and security. They believe we should bring our troops home from places like Iraq and let other nations such as Ukraine fend for themselves. They believe Hunter and Joe Biden sold influence to Ukraine and China and they believe a deep state exists. They want education but don’t want college to be free to those who won’t repay their loans. They believe welfare encourages people to stay home, and social security won’t be there for them. They want to own guns. And though they are the base, they not alone. Trump’s backing from white, college-educated Republicans doubled to 60 percent over the course of last year.

    And outside the MSM no one is buying the “end of democracy” argument. The simplest counter argument is that if Trump does not believe in the system, why is he following its rules and campaigning? Wouldn’t a wanna-be dictator, you know, act more dictatorial? Same for J6. Wouldn’t a proper insurrection, as opposed to a protest march that morphed into a tantrum of sorts, have some path toward success? Yet the J6 “insurrectionists” simply walked back out of the Capitol building on their own, and their supposed leader, Trump, did the same with the White House two weeks later. If that was a potential ending of democracy event, it was a pretty lame one.

    If Trump wanted to be a dictator he had four fine years to implement that and he did not and anyone willing to think about it knows that. Rednecks amuck in the Capitol for an hour or two is not the same as tanks on the Ellipse and anyone willing to think about it knows that. If anything the use of lawfare to jail or drive an opponent off the ballot seems as undemocratic as anything else. Like supporting the blue line on J6 and decrying it over George Floyd, hypocrisy is an ugly thing to build an election strategy around.

    Trump’s voters look for America and see Brazil. Their detractors blame the Electoral College, or talk radio, or redneck ignorance, or Putin. Trump’s win in 2016 and likely win in 2024 inexplicable? Try again.

     

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    Copyright © 2020. All rights reserved. The views expressed here are solely those of the author(s) in their private capacity.

  • Recent Comments

    • John Poole said...

      1

      Even though I will be abstaining I will accept the results which might be disputed for months. I’ve slowly accepted our dysfunctional system of governing. It’s perhaps as good as it can be considering our flawed personalities.

      01/31/24 7:56 PM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      2

      So we can expect Peter to be in the Second Red Wave or just lounging on the Honolulu beach watching the MAGATs drowning in their sorrows. Independents and women voters wont be throwing a lifesaver to the guy who is drowning in debt. Only when he is a beached whale will they carve him up and dump his remains back in the sea of politics. Repugs eat their own.

      02/1/24 8:30 AM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      3

      “In the broader picture, there are a lot of people who believe immigrants threaten jobs and security.”

      Peter fails to mention there are many more Repugs like Donnie Diapers who believe in shit like the Great White Replacement Conspiracy, making the GOP a permanent minority party. They will shit themselves if Kamala takes Biden’s place shortly after his reelection.

      02/1/24 1:37 PM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      4

      “Gloom consumes America.”…that watches Fox News or reads AmeriConservatude. They would be better off going to a Taylor Swift concert. That America has never been happier. Nobody likes a DebbieDowner, Peter.

      02/1/24 1:54 PM | Comment Link

    • John Poole said...

      5

      Bauer- I agree. America should celebrate having a lightweight quasi harlot to keep them distracted.

      02/2/24 9:02 AM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      6

      We can assume Peter’s next article will address the reasons Trump will lose.

      As signs point to the 2024 presidential election being a repeat of the 2020 race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Biden holds a lead over Trump 50 – 44 percent among registered voters in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of registered voters released today.

      In Quinnipiac University’s December 20, 2023 poll, the same hypothetical 2024 general election matchup was ‘too close to call’ as President Biden received 47 percent support and former President Trump received 46 percent support.

      02/2/24 11:48 AM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      7

      “Trump’s voters look for America and see Brazil.”

      Most Trump voters couldn’t find Brazil on a map.

      02/2/24 2:26 PM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      8

      In the same poll Nikki Haley has a five point lead over Biden. And MAGA still doesn’t believe Donnie Diapers isn’t a Deep State plant.

      02/2/24 8:44 PM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      9

      Donnie Diapers predicted the US economy would “crash,” saying he hoped it would do so within the next year – before he would assume the Oval Office should he win a second term in November.

      “When there’s a crash, I hope it’s going to be during this next 12 months because I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover. The one president – I just don’t want to be Herbert Hoover,”

      If it is these people who will vote Trump, It is not perception, it is reality….you know, morons.

      02/4/24 4:06 AM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      10

      Gloom and doom consumes Donnie Diapers. His fortune is melting after the court poured cold water on his dream defense that he never met Ms. Carroll. The guy’s mind is over the rainbow. He is the cowardly lion, scarecrow and tinfoil hat man all rolled up in one. He can’t rely upon his flying monkeys, the Lost Proud Boys, to save him. Now he fears the girl in Kansas City will drop the House vote on his head. This will end the story of the White Nationalist Party and the Conman. FYI: the Grand Wizard of OZ was Lieman Frank Baum, who advocated the mass murder of Native Americans.

      Amazing how dumbass Americans keep falling for fairy tales, when the Truth is stranger than fiction.

      02/4/24 11:34 AM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      11

      Funny that Repugs are so concerned about immigration taxing New York City and other liberal cities. Why should they care? The Repugs should be concerned about declining populations in their Midwest states like South Dakota, where no self-respecting migrant would be caught dead. The Midwest lost more than 400,000 people to other U.S. regions between 2020 and 2022. During the first two years of this decade, Illinois, Michigan and Ohio lost population, and another six Midwestern states lagged behind the U.S. increase of 0.6 percent. One would think politicians would welcome a boost in population in their regions lest they lose seats in the House.

      02/4/24 10:49 PM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      12

      The Washington, D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals published its decision in Donald Trump’s appeal of his “presidential immunity” claim on Tuesday.

      “We cannot accept former President Trump’s claim that a President has unbounded authority to commit crimes…Nor can we sanction his apparent contention that the Executive has carte blanche to violate the rights of individual citizens to vote and to have their votes count,” the ruling says in the 3-0 decision.

      So Biden can’t unlawfully arrest Trump and his MAGA conspirators and send them all to Black Sites? Damn.

      02/6/24 11:20 AM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      13

      Donnie Diapers wants Apocalypse Now

      DD: Joe Biden has weaponized the entire federal government against US. They’ll never stop targeting us, but I know with your support at this very moment, WE WILL WIN!

      And Biden doesn’t want to debate this guy? Just let him speak.

      02/6/24 12:51 PM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      14

      Trump voters look for America and see most voters consider them idiots. Even Peter has to admit his principles were violated when Trump was not only the most corrupt clown to occupy the White House but also the dumbest. Trump has made the dumbest moves to make an easy case for the prosecution to send his fat ass to prison. Dumbass Trump loves to talk and the feds are listening. Trump will win…an all-expenses paid stay at Club Fed.

      02/7/24 10:27 AM | Comment Link

    • John Poole said...

      15

      Israel and the US linked forever in a state of war porn. If you were starting to become a little cranky about your economic prospects under the current administration the suffering of the Palestinians in Gaza miraculously flashes across your screen. The poor bastards! Who am I to complain about my 1st world life’s annoyances. Shame on me!

      02/8/24 10:19 AM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      16

      “Trump’s voters look for America and see Brazil.”

      If only.

      Bolsonaro has already been ruled politically ineligible until 2030 for spreading election falsehoods, and faces several other criminal probes that could land him in jail. He has denied wrongdoing and calls the investigations politically motivated.

      Brazil’s federal police on Thursday sought to confiscate former President Jair Bolsonaro’s passport and arrest some of his closest aides, sources said, as part of an investigation into an alleged coup attempt after he lost the 2022 election.

      The operation reflects a tightening net around Bolsonaro, his family and some of his most powerful allies for actions before and after his unsuccessful reelection effort. The confiscation of his passport will be especially worrying for the former president, a far-right firebrand who cast himself as a Brazilian version of former U.S. President Donald Trump.

      Maybe they can share a prison cell together in Gitmo.

      02/8/24 10:21 AM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      17

      While Trump is losing his shirt in court, he is also losing the big donor money too. Trump’s fundraising slowed in the last three months of 2023 and his legal fees appeared to drag on the finances behind his election effort, according to disclosures submitted to the Federal Election Commission. Trump’s election campaign reported raising $19 million US during the last three months of 2023, down from under $25 million in the third quarter. The total lagged the $33 million reported by Democrat Joe Biden.

      While he can exaggerate his personal wealth, Donnie Diapers has to play by the rules in campaign spending filings. But DD says he’s a rich guy and doesn’t need any outside money. So just disregard those emails, folks.

      02/9/24 11:14 PM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      18

      Why the Do Nothing Party will lose…again

      “Whatever the Dems want, we are against it” may entertain the grouchy Trump cult, but the majority of voters have seen this play before and it is bordering on boredom. Donnie Diapers needs a nap. He calls the Dems Marxists, but it is the Do Nothings who are the true Marxists.

      I don’t know what they have to say
      It makes no difference anyway
      Whatever it is, I’m against it
      No matter what it is or who commenced it
      I’m against it

      Your border bill may be good
      But let’s have one thing understood:
      Whatever it is, I’m against it
      And even when you’ve changed it or condensed it
      I’m against it.

      02/10/24 11:39 AM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      19

      Donnie Diapers has gone and shit the bed this time. Even lady Graham can’t support him.

      Trump on Saturday said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member country that doesn’t meet spending guidelines on defense in a stunning admission he would not abide by the collective-defense clause at the heart of the alliance if reelected.

      “NATO was busted until I came along,” Trump said at a rally in Conway, South Carolina. “I said, ‘Everybody’s gonna pay.’ They said, ‘Well, if we don’t pay, are you still going to protect us?’ I said, ‘Absolutely not.’ They couldn’t believe the answer.”

      Trump said “one of the presidents of a big country” at one point asked him whether the US would still defend the country if they were invaded by Russia even if they “don’t pay.”

      “No, I would not protect you,” Trump recalled telling that president. “In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.”

      Like Donnie?

      02/10/24 9:31 PM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      20

      2027- Donnie Diapers announced from his undisclosed Moscow residence in exile that he encouraged Russia to attack the US if it did not pay his legal bills. DD said he would “encourage” Russia aggressors to “do whatever the hell they want”.

      President Kamala responded: JFK threatened to kill the CIA.

      02/11/24 8:38 AM | Comment Link

    • Rich Bauer said...

      21

      Trump from an undisclosed CIA black site: Russia, if you are listening, HELP!

      02/11/24 12:34 PM | Comment Link

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