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The “New” Iran? What Happens Next
Once the first bombs fell, it no longer mattered what might have happened if the U.S. stuck by the Obama nuclear accords, or any other of the what ifs all the way back to the CIA overthrow of Iran’s democratically elected government in 1953. All that matters is what happens next, now. Here are three scenarios, from just OK to really bad.
One of the few certainties is the Middle East clumsily wrought by the U.S. War of Terror is gone. That Middle East eliminated Iraq as a regional power, and replaced it with a very enlivened Iran. The U.S. wars eliminated Iran’s two border enemies, Iraq and Afghanistan, and pulled most of the Gulf States into the U.S. military orbit. At the same time, American reliance on Gulf oil and the Straits of Hormuz faded from the Policy Imperative Number One position it had controlled since the 1970s. The Middle East reformed into two regional power blocks, Iran (backed by a threshold nuclear program) and its proxies in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, Gaza, and elsewhere, and the U.S./Israeli/Gulf block, backed by the Israeli and American nuclear programs. The Russians and Chinese were not serious players anymore, though both retain interests in the MIddle East, especially China with its need for oil. It looked like that was going to be how things played out for some years to come (see the Biden administration.) The nukes kept things from escalating too far too fast, and Iran’s control of terror forces Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis balanced in part the American armada.
Then came Trump 2.0.
Trump 2.0 unabashedly made it possible for Israel to get as close to destroying Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon as they ever will get. The U.S. and friends neutralized the Houthis, all severe brush back pitches against Iranian regional power. Then came the first U.S. and Israeli bombing of some/all/most of the Iranian nuclear program. Never again would the U.S. hold back Israel from overt, direct, undeniable attacks inside the Iranian homeland for fear of starting a major conflict (remember Scud Hunting and how throughout the Gulf Wars keeping Israel out of the fight was a major U.S. objective?) However much of the Iranian nuclear program was destroyed last year, the U.S. and Israel are going after the rest of it now, along with the Iranian navy and likely soon ground elements. Unless Iran has hidden away a Doomsday nuke, Iran as we knew it for the past few decades is no longer a major regional power. If it takes more bombs to keep it that way, so be it, the gloves have truly been taken off. Trump talks now of a 4-5 week bombing campaign. At the rate of hundreds of sorties or more a day, what will be left to blow up? Call all that a Mission Accomplished moment.
The remaining question is what happens in Iran the day after the dust settles. The best scenario is what we’ll call Islamic Republic 2.0. Iran’s powerful built an internal security apparatus and theocratic structure designed to keep themselves in power. It has a vicious internal spy network, a well-armed Revolutionary Guard, a propaganda operation that preys upon very deep and sincere Islamic feelings among the people, especially the middle and technocratic classes, and will use all those formidable tools to cling to power.
It may take a Tiananmen Square incident or three to achieve, which the U.S. will sit back and allow to happen as it did in Beijing, and in Tehran earlier this year. Iran does not live in fear of an Islamic resolution like the Saudis do, they already had theirs in 1979 and thrive on it. Don’t be swayed by CNN clips of random women burning their hijabs; my own visits in Iran with many ranks of people suggested a dissatisfaction with plenty the clerical government does that helps maintain U.S. economic sanctions, but not necessarily a dissatisfaction with the form of government (which includes local and regional elements of democratic elections) itself. Stripped of its nukes and aware of the people’s dissatisfactions, Islamic Republic 2.0 will be forced to negotiate with the U.S. to lessen sanctions. What matters most to Iran after 5000 years of existence is national survival, and some form of diplomacy, albeit at gunpoint, is the only path. A modus vivendi with Israel and America. The decades long strategy to match Israel as a regional nuclear power has failed. The U.S. will go along to secure the “win” for Trump, and Israel will be satisfied in having ensured its survival. Weird, but everyone sort of wins something for the trouble.
If somehow the clerics fail to retain power and before chaos ensues, there exists the possibility of a internally-negotiated secular government in Tehran, not quite Islamic Republic 2.0 but not quite a Jeffersonian democracy. The U.S. failed to see it, but this was always the sort-of best resolution for Iraq by say 2005 or so. The clerics retain majority control internally, the civilians assume responsibility for foreign affairs and most of the non-nuclear military, and the U.S. backs off enough of the sanctions to help keep the new system alive and in place for a while to see what happens. It is however very unclear Iran has the internal webs of cooperation to pull this off, or whether the Israelis will tolerate such a crap shoot for the country they just defeated. It is mostly a Western fantasy that the Iranian people will rise up and take over the government. There is no nationally organized such movement to call to the barricades, such as revolutionary Islam in 1979 (MEK and Reza Pahlavi have no real following inside the country.) There is no clear leader to get behind, as with Khomeini in 1979. Khamenei was disliked by many but not hated by most, as with the Shah. The only way mobs succeed against armed police and troops is if many, many of the crowd are willing to die; thousands in Tehran earlier and who-knows-how-many in Tiananmen and Johannesburg and the Hungarian Revolution longer ago were never enough. If the clerics close the universities and send all the kids home to their moms and dads that eliminates most of any organizational base that does precariously exist.
The worst-case scenario is very, very bad: chaos. Think Libya 2011, or Iraq during the darkest days, but this time with ballistic missiles and maybe even some fissionable material loose among the competing factions. What if the Revolutionary Guard breaks away from the clerics and clings to the missles, going all out inside the country and/or against Israel? What if the religious cities of say Qom and Mashhad try to break off from a civilian government growing in Tehran? What if the small but always angry Kurdish minority in Western Iran, denied a homeland by the U.S. in Iraq, Syria, and Turkey, decides to rise up? What if just all hell breaks loose as the U.S. and Israel destroy the things that keep order, as in Baghdad in 2003 when the entire civil infrastructure was wiped out by the Americans? The cops stop coming to work, the army stays in barracks, and suddenly you have a free for all inside a nation of 92 million people that requires… external peace keeping forces? How it could end up is God’s will, inshallah, as they like to say in the Middle East.
Only the most deluded in Washington and Tel Aviv think they know which scenario will be the next step in a new Iran. Only the most deluded in Washington and Tel Aviv think they will have significant influence themselves in what happens next.
Copyright © 2024. All rights reserved. The views expressed here are solely those of the author(s) in their private capacity.
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Rich Bauer said...
1Hey MAGGOTS, Regime Change Begins at Home
The best case scenario is the Trump War causes MAGGOTS to cry uncle when gas is over $5 at the November midterms. Then Dems take the House and begin impeachment proceedings against DEMENTED. Regime change begins at home. Noem is just the first moron to go. Goebbels Miller is on the way out.
The worst case scenario is the Trump tyrant false flag bombs New York in his desperate attempt to cancel the midterms, citing a national emergency. Given his psychopathic actions to date, prove me wrong. Only the most deluded MAGGOTS can believe anything the Demented one vomits. Those MAGGOTS who won’t vote Dem will likely stay at home because they can’t afford gas money.
You actually have to feel sorry for Peter and the other peace Prezidunce supporters who have been fooled. Demented ALWAYS had no concern for anyone but himself. He has no concern for Repugs other than to prevent his endless impeachments.
Some MAGGOTS like Marge Greene act like they have finally seen the light. Even some Am Conjob writers admitted they were idiots to believe the Peace Prezidunce lies.
The truth is Regime change was always Demented’s goal. He will achieve it …in the US.
03/9/26 12:21 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
2What happens next is TACO word salad
Without declaring war in Iran, Demented TACO has already declared MISSION ACCOMPLISHED victory. This was a complete reversal from Demented TACO and HEADUPHISASS previous assertions that full regime change was necessary, which appeared to be setting up a much longer and wider-scale engagement — and it was met with mockery and confusion from commenters on social media.
“He went from ‘unconditional surrender’ and ‘I must pick their new leader’ to full ‘just declare victory and get the hell out’ TACO Trump,” wrote Ron Filipkowski, echoing an internet acronym that stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”
TACO knows the Repugs would get destroyed in the midterms if the war was not going well…and gas was over $5.
03/9/26 5:20 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
3Boots on the ground will boot Demented up the ars
You know the idea is a non starter when MAGA don’t want boots on the ground. Less than 12% support the idea. Demented is ignorant of history but he ain’t stupid. Lady Lindsey will have to be satisfied with bombing elementary schools.
But you go ahead, Mr. Peace Prezidunce. Get a thousand more AMERICAN SOLDIERS killed. Even Dumbass American voters who believed your lies will boot your fat ars so hard that it will look as blue as your rotting hand.
03/10/26 9:34 AM | Comment Link
John Poole said...
492 million Muslims in Iran would have to jettison their deeply held and cherished religious beliefs and tenets for the nation to make it out of the dark ages. The autocratic theocracy in Iran will continue on terra firma until Muslims begin to question the ruse of a cranky and unforgiving autocrat in the ether.
03/10/26 5:46 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
5“The worst-case scenario is very, very bad: chaos.”
The worst-case scenario is Putin gives Iran a surplus nuke in 2029, and it gets smuggled into NYC to destroy Wall Street. Putin is already giving Iran military intel to kill American soldiers. Putin knows he is toast when Newsom wins the White House.
The Trump War has killed “antiwar” VD Dance’s chances. Jared has shown Little Marco has no role in foreign affairs. Marco should self-deport himself to Cuba. Jared will immigrate to Saudi. Demented Donnie should share a cell in Rikers with Weinstein. Epstein will hang over his head.
03/11/26 9:17 AM | Comment Link
John Poole said...
6All the current world religions as an embellishing episode of Seinfeld’s Soup Nazi.
“I am omnipotent and if you question that then……. NO AFTERLIFE FOR YOU!”
Iran to Israel: “We will give up our uranium enrichment program if you give up your nukes.”
Israel’s response: “No nukes for you!” (followed by bunker buster launches)
We’re long over due for a civilizational clash over existential differences on terra firma. The cosmos could care less.
03/11/26 10:08 AM | Comment Link
John Poole said...
7I think Trump and inner circle of sycophants should show the world how macho America’s leaders are by sailing up the Strait of Hormuz on a big donor’s luxury yacht- unescorted of course.
03/11/26 10:27 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
8How to Deal with the “Most Deluded”
Peter should give another think about the New USA rather than the New Iran. Peoples is stupid in the USA but not as stupid as Donnie Dementia thinks they is.
Donnie Dementia has pulled the Sergeant Schultz excuse “I don’t know nuthin about anything” way too often in the Trump Illegal War against Iran. Yes, It is better for him to keep using that ignorant response than to let his diseased brain imagine how Iran obtained a Tomahawk missile and blew 175 Iranian kids to pieces. But How long will MAGA accept his lies when their kids aka Dementia’s “suckers and losers” come home in caskets? The GOP Deep State is getting real nervous DD is already looking for the off ramp. The towns people are coming with their pitchforks in November.
One doesn’t have to be deluded to know what is coming in the New USA. It is human behavior that ignorant Americans can be so stupid to elect a lunatic like Demented, but eventually is a limit to the lies they will swallow. Their brains are in their ass. Kick them hard enough and in their pocketbook and those delusions will magically disappear.
03/11/26 7:00 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
9“Washington and Israel have no influence in what happens next…”
You got that right, pal. Winter and The ECONOMIC NORTH WALL is coming to protect the world from the White Nationalist Walkers. In the stupid version of GAME OF THRONES, Donnie Dementia’s lunacy has created a WALL..in the North. Prime Minister Mark Carney is building “a 40-nation alliance totaling 1.5 billion consumers across 40 countries, representing almost half of the world’s GDP.” The combined EU-CPTPP bloc would represent about 40% of global GDP and 1.5 billion people. The U.S. economy is about 25% of global GDP. China is about 18-20%.
This alliance is bigger than the American economy. It’s bigger than China. It is, by raw economic mass, the largest trading bloc ever assembled. Trump’s tariff threat — “buy from us or else” — loses its teeth when these 40 nations can buy from each other instead, at zero tariffs, with harmonized supply chains that don’t need American ports, American consumers, or American approval.
According to the World Bank, the two blocs together account for almost a third of all world trade. That’s trade that can now flow between them — without touching the United States.
Winter is coming, Demented. It’s going to be long and last the rest of your diseased life.
03/12/26 10:52 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
10Donnie Dementia, AMERICA’s FAUST
Donnie says he doesn’t think he is going to heaven. Unless you watch Faux News, this isn’t a big surprise.
Donnie, like Faust, is irrevocably corrupted and believes his sins cannot be forgiven; when his term ends, the Dem Devils will carry him off to Hell…also known as Rikers. Hang in there, Donnie.
03/13/26 8:47 AM | Comment Link
John Poole said...
11The dominant media, even today, says Iran’s 1979 take over of the American Embassy proved that Iran was a threat to America and the world. American mistreatment of the Iranian people prior to that year is not discussed. It’s unlikely the truth of America’s misdeeds will be disseminated except into the ether. The truth is probably by now “out there” somewhere near the edge of our solar system.
03/13/26 10:31 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
12JP, the more things change…Stupidity is not only a Repug thing
The “intelligence” CIA provided in 1976 did not predict the Iranian Revolution. Jimmy Carter was assured by his “intelligence” CIA that the Shah traveling to the USA would not end in disaster. The CIA assured him the special op to rescue the hostages would be a success. These same “intelligence” people are likely planning a covert operation to rescue the Iranian nuke bomb material. What could go wrong?
03/13/26 11:22 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
13The Draft Dodger says he still feels it in his bone spurs
EPSTEIN’s BEST FRIEND, Peter’s Peace Prezidunce, is reveling in the deaths of hundreds of little Iranian girls. While Demented was the last person on earth who believed the Iranians did it, he now embraces NO Quarter as the US war crime strategy.
The Draft Dodger has ordered 2000 Marines to get ready for boots on the ground. Thank god we have Peter’s Peace Prezidunce. If only for his bone spurs, Demented would join those Marines to fight!
03/14/26 9:13 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
14“Only the most deluded…” You mean the 77,000,000 who voted for the orange clown?
H.L.: “No one in this world, so far as I know—and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people”…you know, morons.
03/14/26 10:09 AM | Comment Link
John Poole said...
15Bauer: I’m heartened that American leaders seem to have jettisoned the term “kinetic action” which caused only head tilts from America’s pound stray voters with a somewhat more familiar term- excursion.
03/14/26 1:21 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
16JP,
Demented’s decision to bomb Iran has been criticized for not considering the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Occam’s Razor would simply say that was Demented’s goal- increase the price of oil as a payoff to his oil company supporters and dada Putin.
03/14/26 4:12 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
17JP,
The Trump War is going so badly that the moron wants the DoJ to release more TrumpEpstein files to distract his idiot supporters who can’t afford gas or groceries.
03/14/26 4:26 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
18If you want to understand Donnie Dementia’s hold on his MAGGOTS, I suggest you watch “Weapons.” DD, like Gladys, sent his Flying ICE monkeys to kill his enemies. When they finally get burned by high gas prices and wake up, they will turn on the Repugs and rip them to pieces.
03/15/26 9:30 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
19Reportedly the Trump military geniuses did not plan for the Iranians plan to close the Straits of Hormuz. If so, maybe Trump should change the name of the War College to WAR ELEMENTARY SCHOOL…and a reminder of these idiots who killed those 160:Iranian little girls.
03/15/26 11:12 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
20It is understandable that the Trump Fascists have declined to give a consistent believable reason for attacking Iran. Their most laughable reason was Iran going to attack Israel and then US bases. The Trump Fascists failed to mention Iran has not attacked any country in the last 200 years, and not executed any coups.
Iran of course would have good reason to expect an attack from the US, given its criminal war record since 1963.
But hey, we’re the good guys.
03/15/26 1:37 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
21Trump is Epsteining the Neocon Deep State War Party
So we gave Trump enough rope. He started the Iran War to distract the voters attention from the TrumpEpstein files. Now his gallows humor could come back to HANG the NEOCON Deep State War Party.
In November the towns people is coming with their pitchforks like the kids in Weapons. You got to admit Trump and Gladys wear the same amount of makeup. The townies would burn Demented in oil if it wasn’t so damn expensive.
03/15/26 5:56 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
22Trump’s Tombstone
Trump was conned by a bigger con Netanyahu who wanted the US to invade Iran. His persistence paid off. He finally found an American president so stupid that he would do what every Republican and Democratic president since Ronald Reagan refused to do: start a pointless, enormously costly war with an adversary on the other side of the globe that, however odious, posed only secondary threats to America.
03/15/26 6:53 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
23“Only the most deluded in Washington and Tel Aviv think they will have significant influence themselves in what happens next.”
That would include JD and Donnie Dementia. JD is waiting to stab DD in the back. Already saying he was against the Epic Fiasco. Donnie may be demented but he will never forget what JD said about him. Just a matter of time one or the other gets it in the end.
03/16/26 9:48 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
24It’s America First, stupid
Calling MAGGOTS stupid who are “American First” is a sure way to lose the midterms. But that is exactly what Bozo the Orange Clown has done. The OC has already alienated his dumbass Latin supporters by deporting their relatives. Independents now can’t stand looking at this decaying creature. Whatever lies the 77,000,000 voters swallowed -No more wars, AFFORDABILITY, gas prices, draining the swamp, the Deep State, now are anchors on the drowning Repugs. The sharks are circling.
The Deep State Repugs don’t have much of a future. This is how it will happen: JD Vance, realizing the OC is gonna push him out of the Circus, will start rumors the OC has no brain. After the midterm “Epic Fiasco”. VD will use the 25th as the only way to stop Rubio in 2028. Peter Thiel probably has the dirt on the OC to make the purge happen. The OC will TACO, rather than be sent to Rikers on sex criminal convictions and get Epsteined.
03/16/26 11:04 AM | Comment Link
John Poole said...
25I’ve noticed the I STAND WITH UKRAINE signs on lawns around me are starting to look a little weather beaten while I STAND WITH ISRAEL signs seem to be made of sturdier material.
03/16/26 4:21 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
26Somebody obviously hacked the American Conservative website and wrote something intelligent:
“With the Iran war going very poorly, President Donald Trump has given increasing indications that he is looking for an off-ramp. He made the mistake of listening to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and other hawks in the run-up to the war, and now their Pollyannish predictions have all fallen flat. Declaring victory and getting out as soon as possible is far and away the best option available.”
03/16/26 10:31 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
27Donnie Dementia blames Artificial Intelligence for War Crime
The Demented POS has blood on his tiny hands for the murder of 160 little girls that even Epstein would find disgusting. But Demented now blames AI for the mistake. The pentagon claims No human checked the outdated target list. Even Skynet’s robots wouldn’t make that mistake.
03/17/26 8:41 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
28Actually the 77,000,000 idiots who voted for this war criminal have blood on their hands. You made it all possible.
03/17/26 8:55 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
29Sinking ships in the Straits not Demented’s only worry. The MAGGOT rats are jumping off Demented’s sinking ship.
“After much reflection, I (Kent) have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today.
I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”
03/17/26 10:08 AM | Comment Link
John Poole said...
30Bauer: I think the core cult of Trump is fine with his war messaging apparent inconsistency. He is cleverly tricking the wily devil Muslims and testing the faithful to weed out the disloyal.
Jesus will soon walk across the Strait of Hormuz as a sign that righteousness has won. I’m only surprised his cult hasn’t found Trump’s name coded in REVELATION. Religious insanity has always been a core aspect of this nation from its founding.
03/17/26 11:04 AM | Comment Link
John Poole said...
31Who knew that Pete Hegseth was brilliantly prescient? “Trump erupts in epic fury over his war planning incompetence finally being exposed!”
03/17/26 11:41 AM | Comment Link
John Poole said...
32PVB: sorry to question one of your scenarios but thinking Israel will sort of accept a possible but unlikely scenario of a semi secular rule in a Muslim country seems naive.
Charles Fuller in his A SOLDIER’S PLAY has Sergeant Waters’s last words being: “They’ll still hate you. They still hate you.”
The Iran’s mullahs know they’ll always be hated by the Israelis. The only solution is for such tribal animosity to quietly and permanently disappear from human history but that might take a few more thousand years if indeed it ever happens.
03/17/26 11:55 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
33Fitting DJT, an obviously mentally ill person, would end in a strait-jacket.
03/17/26 8:06 PM | Comment Link