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The One Absolute Non-Negotiable Item with Iran
Why is it so important for the U.S. to take and retain control of the Strait of Hormuz? No matter what else, why is this the only real non-negotiable with Iran?
At first glance the non-negotiable seems to be Iran’s nuclear program. This leaves open the question of what might be left of the program at all after massive bombing by the U.S. and Israel. The media makes much of some enriched uranium supposed still buried under one of the ruined sites, and of course no one should simply write off radioactive material in the hands of an adversary. But the more immediate concern is not what remnants of Iran’s nuclear program survived bombing, but how easily any reconstruction effort could be detected from space and struck from a distance. That reality makes the nuclear issue containable. The genie is out of the bottle on bombing inside Iran, so any nascent efforts to reconstruct a nuclear program can be destroyed by the U.S. and Israel with little political fallout. It would be better if none of that had to happen, but it easily could, because agreement or no agreement, Iran does not have to play fair.
Understanding what the U.S. is really negotiating with Iran — the shifting of the balance of power in the Middle East — points to the one truly non-negotiable term. That means the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway that must be open to shipping, free of violence, and free of tolls.
Granting control of the strait to Iran would set a catastrophic precedent. Would Houthi militants then try for control at the mouth of the Red Sea? What if Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, China or any of the other nation-states in the region lay claim to the Strait of Malacca? Never mind the Persian Gulf; over 94,000 vessels a year pass through Malacca, making it the busiest strait in the world. It carries about 25 percent of the world’s traded goods, including oil, and Chinese manufactured products. For decades China referred to the “Malacca Dilemma,” the fear that rivals could blockade this narrow, vital energy route, so it could be time to act. Just this week (coincidence?) China deployed ships to tighten control of the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, roiling tension with the Philippines. And what about the Taiwan Strait, or any other of the world’s commercial chokepoints?
Since the days of the Barbary pirates one of the core jobs of the United States Navy has been safeguarding global freedom of navigation, a principle that underpins international trade and economic stability. By maintaining a forward-deployed presence in key maritime chokepoints and with carrier groups in all oceans, the Navy ensures sea lanes remain open in accordance with international law. No one nation comes close to being able to play such a role. Europe’s sea power has not been able to do so since the collapse of the British Empire, and China still lacks the global blue water navy and extensive world-wide base network to try.
At present China is willing to benefit from this stable maritime order without contributing much to it. Yet a world where it appears the order is breaking down, such as if Iran remains in control of Hormuz, could press China to act. While China still lacks naval reach, it may already be capable of asserting control over regional chokepoints like the Strait of Malacca, especially if it concludes the existing maritime order is eroding. For its own self-interest (oil) China also could expand diplomacy and arms sales to the new toughest kid on the Gulf block, Tehran. Elsewhere, the Gulf states and maybe even allied countries in East Asia will have to soften ties with the U.S. in recognition of the new regional power of Iran.
But we don’t need to cede control of the Strait of Hormuz. Forcing it open is a military objective for which the Pentagon has planned for decades, and has in some form already been done twice. The Trump White House will remember in 2019 the Islamic Revolutionary Guard threatened to close the Strait. It sabotaged four oil tankers in the United Arab Emirates and damaged two others with mines. But in the end Iran backed away from the fight. It could not afford a potential blockade of its oil exports along the lines of Venezuela. The U.S. could blockade the Strait at low cost in the Arabian Sea, away from Iranian interference. Iran also knows while it could harass and frighten, it can not seal the Strait to all traffic in the face of a massive U.S. Navy deployment. This would morph from asymmetrical warfare Iran could execute, to peer-to-peer fighting, which if the U.S. was willing to escalate to, Iran could not survive.
Even more instructive is the Iran–Iraq “Tanker War.” Between 1984 and 1988, oil tankers and merchant vessels became targets for Iran in a campaign designed not to defeat an enemy navy but to strangle the Iraqi economy. After an unsuccessful gambit to reflag Kuwaiti tankers as American to warn off the Iranians, a change in American tactics neutralized the Iranian threat. The United States shifted from escorting tankers to directly confronting Iranian forces. The turning point came in April 1988, after a U.S. frigate struck a mine in the Gulf. Although the ship survived, the incident triggered a massive American retaliation. In Operation Praying Mantis, U.S. helicopters disabled an Iranian ship laying mines, and sank three other Iranian boats. Navy warships shelled Revolutionary Guard bases and Iranian oil platforms. SEALs destroyed a platform as well. Navy and Marine elements would go on to selectively destroy multiple targets as well as numerous Iranian naval and aircraft. The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) now in the Gulf would be able to carry out a similar strategy.
Having gone this far, the U.S. may need to go further. This power struggle between Washington and Tehran has been going on for a long time. This most recent round follows an emboldened Iran who watched the United States destroy or greatly weaken its two major enemies, Iraq and the Taliban, clearing both Iran’s east and west borders at no cost to Tehran. The American public went on to lose its taste for war and Iran’s nukes fell off Washington’s once sweeping martial agenda in the Middle East. Iraq became an Iranian subjugate even as Iran expanded its proxy fighting in Lebanon knowing the U.S. had had enough.
It would be strategically devastating at this point for America to follow the regional empowerment of Iran through its failures in Iraq and Afghanistan by handing over a global lever of control. This regional, multigenerational, power struggle is not a problem that will be solved in a single negotiation or a single conflict. But one principle must remain constant: the Strait of Hormuz cannot become a bargaining chip. If it does, the consequences will extend far beyond the Middle East, reshaping the global order in ways the United States may not be able to reverse.
Old sayings resonate in the Middle East. “The rug is never sold” reminds marketplace negotiators that no deal is ever final; there is always more to extract. That is useful context if U.S. officials sit down again with the Iranians for another bite at the apple. But amid the expected give-and-take, one issue must remain non-negotiable: keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
Copyright © 2024. All rights reserved. The views expressed here are solely those of the author(s) in their private capacity.
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Rich Bauer said...
1The strait is open for business. Iran is protecting it and charging a toll to keep it open. The US is trying to keep it closed with its Trump dumpster fire blockade. Demented said the US doesn’t need the oil. So why not let ASIA and Europe have it?
04/21/26 9:40 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
2Social media has conditioned dumbass Amerikans to focus on the label and not the ingredients. Consider how Amerikans have lost faith in Drumpf’s cabinet: Noem labeled as a whore, Patel labeled as an Indian drunk, whatever the Dept of Labor Chavez weirdo is. And now Drumpf, his labels are beginning to stick. The guy is labeled as a LOSER in every sense. The Iran War is an EPIC FIASCO, the gas prices are killing Amerikan pocketbooks. Now Virginia has nailed Drumpf’s cross in November. Fake Jesus should be the label most appropriate for this piece of shite. His miracles are illusions. He was resurrected in 2024, but the Jews are getting crucified this time.
04/22/26 9:32 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
3The One Absolute Non-Negotiable Item with MAGA
FOOD COSTS. 8% higher than last year.
04/22/26 8:11 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
4The one absolute non-negotiable item with Drumpf- drunks
Drumpf cannot stand drunks. Keystone Crash Patel has trotted out another excuse for his behavior that has him on Drumpf’s firing line. The drunken Indian blames Hollywood westerns for always depicting drunken Indians.
Look on the bright side, Patel, you will have lots of free time to get wasted.
04/23/26 8:17 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
5Drumpf committing political suicide. Which parasites left are looking for a new host?
Parasites Vance, Nuttyyahoo, Lady Graham better start looking for a new host as Drumpf has effectively killed his political usefulness. In the space of three months Drumpf has crushed his approval ratings to the low 30s. Only the white nationalists are still feeding off his bloated carcass. Faux News is the biggest parasite and desperate to find a host to replace it. HeadUpHisAss is about to get dumped. Little Marco and DeathSantis better make their move before the Trump Titanic takes them all down.
04/23/26 3:54 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
6Cleanup on aisle Hormuz
So the dry drunk HEADUPHISASS vomits all over the Strait of Hormuz and is angry the NATO countries won’t clean up his mess.
They are right to let him suffer the stench. These drunks won’t change their behavior if others enable it.
04/24/26 11:13 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
7While it is true you can never go broke underestimating the intelligence of Amerikans, it is also true these stupid bastards know when they are getting screwed. The voters who didn’t vote in 2024 will show in November that to be the case: economic policies have triggered unprecedented public dissatisfaction, with consumer sentiment reaching its lowest point in 74 years. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 47.6 in preliminary April 2026, a 10.7 percent drop from March, marking the worst reading in the history of the Consumer Sentiment poll.
04/24/26 1:56 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
8Damn, the DoJ really hates Drumpf
When the FBI finds the dirt on the treasonous acts of Drumpf and the fat clown receives the death sentence, the DoJ wants to speed the appeal process to throw dirt on Demented’s grave. Besides wanting to shorten the appeals process for people sentenced to death, it wants to add firing squads, electrocution and gas asphyxiation as methods of federal execution, the Department of Justice announced in a report on Friday.
04/24/26 6:36 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
9The Authoritarian Fat Fraud has no balls
The MAGGOT is a fearful creature seeking the father figure lacking in their traumatized lives. They fell for the Demented tough guy, a draft dodger who claims he could have won Vietnam. Now I’m not saying these MAGGOTS are stupid, as they eventually realize the fraud has no balls. Now these fearful creatures fear the authoritarian fat fraud is making their pathetic lives worse. They are traumatized by the lies sold them by the Repug PedoProtection Party. They will sit out of the November election, making the House an easy win for the Dems.
04/24/26 7:19 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
10The One Absolute Non-Negotiable Item with Drumpf’s War
Can’t wage war when you don’t have weapons. Reports leaked out of the Pentagone that Drumpf’s War has depleted the Dept of War’s toys by 75%. Iran gets daily reports. Iran has Drump’s nuts. Drumpf’s bluff has been called. He is drawing dead.
04/26/26 9:46 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
11Drump’s failed WAR is his Vietnam War
Even AMERICAN CONSERVATIVE now sees the Drumpf War as the worst single decision made by any American president since the Vietnam fiasco. The war reflects Drumpf: overconfident, bad intelligence, inflated bluster and outright lies as a cover for irresolution and incompetence, xenophobic hubris, a misguided reliance on technical superiority and outmoded strategy, and a fundamental failure to understand the nature of asymmetrical warfare.
The war is effectively over as HEADUPHISASS blew through five years of missiles and other hi tech weapons. The only military still cheering on the war is China, which is getting ready to eat the Pentagon’s lunch. The Drumpf War is the realization of the Domino Theory as it frees China Communists to control Asia. It also fees Putin to fund more years of the Ukraine War.
Forget about the Drumpf Arc. He needs to plan for another Memorial ditch on the Mall.
04/26/26 11:22 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
12Yo, Drumpf, you ain’t no Lincoln …or JFK
After the 10th assassination attempt on the orange clown’s life, said clown claimed it meant he was as noble as Lincoln. Actually, these attempts make the orange clown look more like Hitler, who was targeted over 40 times for assassination. While the DEEP STATE/Generals may have been involved in the latest attempt, it looks as if his Secret Service enabled two of them. Where was the SS security that allowed the latest assassin a running start to the ballroom? Vance would the prime candidate to benefit from Drumpf’s death, but he seemed oblivious to the danger as Secret Service tried to pull him off the stage.
When will they try again to assassinate Drumpf? Lincoln? Maybe that is why Drumpf closed the Kennedy Center. To get named for that, the assassination enabled by the Secret Service has to succeed.
04/27/26 7:59 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
13Got home late and heard news Drumpf had been assassinated at the dinner. My first response was remembering Drumpf’s own words:
“Good, I’m glad he’s dead,” President Donald Trump wrote on social media about the former special counsel who investigated Russian interference in the 2016 election. “He can no longer hurt innocent people!”
160 little Iranian girls and Epstein victims would have applauded those remarks.
04/28/26 5:59 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
14The Dems must do everything in their power to keep Drumpf alive. He is KILLING THE RepugPedoProtection Party.
His popularity has taken a beating since the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28 that has led to a surge in gasoline prices. Only 22% of poll respondents approved of Trump’s performance on the cost of living, down from 25% in the prior Reuters/Ipsos poll. The chart indicates Drumpf and his PPP will be polling in the teens by November. Normally teens get Drumpf excited.
04/28/26 7:24 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
15The chances of the PPP in November are piss poor
Drumpf will need a bigger diaper. In the past 40 years, the only time the president’s party won the popular vote in a midterm was 2002, in the wake of the September 11th attacks. Given Donald Diapers abysmal approval rating, he is highly unlikely to become the second. How unlikely? Well, the chances are around 2%.”
04/29/26 11:38 AM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
16The Epstein orange clown is at the end of his rope
Ironic the Epstein sex pervert freak was given enough rope to hang himself for his illegal war-not-a war. He went strait down to the bottom with his lies about obliterating the Iran nuke program. He then sold more lies the obliterated Iran nuke program was now an imminent threat to the United Dumbass States. For those keeping score this is the MO of the MIC: Vietnam, Iraq War and Afghanistan War all based on shallow lies…for anyone actually interested in looking.
How will the Iran War end? For all their war crimes, the Orange Clown and HeadUpHisAss should be convicted and sentenced as soon as 2029. Epstein at least had the balls to save the taxpayers money. But the little dickhater won’t do it as he has the balls the size of his brain.
04/29/26 3:08 PM | Comment Link
Rich Bauer said...
17$120. Brent oil today. The orange clown just loves screwing over his idiot voters. But the price of kool-aid has not increased.
04/30/26 8:34 AM | Comment Link