The Next Stage of U.S.-Iran Relations

June 30, 2026

Tags: Iran, Israel, MOU, nuclear, Oil, Strait of Hormuz
Posted in: Iran, Libya, Military, Trump

The U.S.-Iran War may be dwindling its final phase, though the durability of any ceasefire remains uncertain. So who won? As the kids say, it’s complicated.

Much of the discussion of the war’s meaning, even as it drags on,  focuses on how it has already damaged Donald Trump politically. Lost in that pile-on is a more important question: what did the war produce? The answer may lie in the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding that may still someday mark the end of the fighting. However, the talk now is almost exclusively and presumably about how the war’s failure will help crush the Republicans in November. That misses at first that any missteps or any failures, or any successes, are America’s to reckon with for now forever forward, not simply some trite shot at a hated President. Wars belong to the nation, not to a particular administration. It may have once been called Johnson’s and Nixon’s war, but the Vietnam vets who still suffer today are America’s. The outcome of the Iran War should not be hooted and cheered as if it was another simple downturn in the polls.

So what does a fuller look at the outcome of the war tell us? History as always will be the final judge (as it will on whose agreement, Obama’s or Trump’s, was better) but the text of the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran points in a possible positive direction. If the MOU can be translated into actual day-to-day relations, it opens the door for a new pattern for two countries which have been at war with each other for decades in a regional, multigenerational, power struggle.

Chief among the hopeful parts of the MOU is Paragraph Eight, which states in part “The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled, enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in Paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the I.A.E.A.” If this works it means no nukes for Iran. It would sharply limit Iran’s ability to coerce its neighbors and alter the regional balance of power. It means ending the apocalyptic threat to Israel, always a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy. It means no future strikes by the U.S. or Israel to brush back Iranian nuclear plans. It means no Iran with fissionable material to sell or barter globally. Yes, the MOU wording is vague in places (but quite specific in others) and yes the Iranians have cheated on past agreements. But if Paragraph Eight can be effectively implemented it will justify the recent war by preventing future ones.

Another critical part of the MOU is Paragraph 7, which explains “The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, I.A.E.A. Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal.” This paragraph joins with several others regarding the release of Iranian assets held in U.S. banks and the removal of restrictions on Iran selling oil on the global market, to be the carrot on the no nukes pledge (the stick of course being the reimposition of sanctions backed up by B-2s). The heavy sanctions Iran has faced since the 1979 Islamic Revolution have raised the price of everything inside the country, and basically control the consumer economy. For example, after the reimposition of U.S. sanctions in 2018, Iranian oil exports fell sharply from roughly 2.5 million barrels per day to well under 1 million barrels per day for a period. Sanctions have restricted Iran’s access to foreign currency and the international banking system, weakening the rial. This has made imports more expensive and fueled inflation. Sanctions have all but shut off large-scale foreign investment, restricted access to needed medical and civilian aviation technology, and reduced trade.

What decades of sanctions have not done is stop Iran from its nuclear ambitions. Removing sanctions, in measured stages as Iran complies piece-by-piece with the no nukes pledge, will reintroduce Iran into the world economy. Peaceful trading with other nations has been the center of the world order the United States created following World War II. Bringing Iran into the system can lessen its need to suffer as a pariah country. Success here could possibly replace Obama’s Libyan no nukes disaster (surrendering strategic weapons leaves a regime vulnerable to later coercion) with a lesson that Cuba and North Korea might take note of.

There does exist in the MOU one loaded gun, something which could cause the rest of the MOU to fail. One hopes the final agreement between the U.S. and Iran dramatically revises Paragraph 5, which states “Upon the signing of this M.O.U., the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf.” It is possible to understand the U.S. conceding to this faint language at this stage to secure the rest of the agreement, but it is critical that Iran in the end not control the Strait by any means, including some sort of fee, insurance or toll system.

Granting any measure of control of the Strait to Iran would set a catastrophic precedent. At the post-WWII Bretton Woods Conference, Washington created an economic system that depended in large part on the United States Navy safeguarding global freedom of navigation, a principle that underpins international trade and economic stability today. By maintaining a forward-deployed presence in key maritime chokepoints and with carrier groups in all oceans, the world’s most powerful navy ensures sea lanes remain open in accordance with international law. No other nation comes close to being able to play such a role. Europe’s sea power has not been able to do so since the collapse of the British Empire, and China still lacks the sizable blue water navy and extensive world-wide base network to try. It would be strategically devastating for America to follow the regional empowerment of Iran through its failures in Iraq and Afghanistan by handing over a global lever of control.  The opening of the Strait of Hormuz cannot become a bargaining chip. The consequences will extend far beyond the Middle East, reshaping the global order in ways the United States may not be able to reverse.

This war with Iran is not over but it has reached a stage where its ultimate significance can be decided. The MOU and what happens next shows the war need not be a waste, and that the outcome is still in play even as the guns fall silent. The verdict lies not on the battlefield but in whether the MOU survives implementation. That verdict remains unwritten.

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