• Iraq Lost 2,300 Humvees (and More!) to IS in Mosul Alone

    June 8, 2015 // 16 Comments »

    abadi


    See, this is why the Iraqis just can’t have nice things.

    Iraqi security forces lost 2,300 Humvee armored vehicles when the Islamic State jihadist group overran the northern city of Mosul, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said on Sunday.

    U.S. Weapons Already Lost to Islamic State

    Iraqi forces have previously abandoned significant types and number of heavy weapons Islamic State could not have otherwise acquired. For example, losses to IS include at least 40 M-1A1 main battle tanks. IS also picked up in Mosul and elsewhere American small arms and ammunition (including 4,000 machine guns that can fire upwards of 800 rounds per minute), and as many as 52 American M-198 howitzer mobile gun systems.

    “In the collapse of Mosul, we lost a lot of weapons,” Abadi said in an interview with Iraqiya state TV. Clashes began in Mosul, Iraq’s second city, late on June 9, 2014, and Iraqi forces lost it the following day to IS, less than 24 hours later.



    More U.S. Weapons on the Way

    To help replenish Iraq’s arms, last year the State Department approved a sale to Iraq of 1,000 Humvees with increased armor, machine guns, and grenade launchers. The U.S. is currently in the process of sending/has already sent to Iraq 175 M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks, 55,000 rounds of main gun ammunition for the tanks, $600 million in howitzers and trucks, and $700 million worth of Hellfire missiles.

    The United States has previously donated 250 MRAPs to Iraq, as well as $300 million in other weapons.

    Some $1.2 billion in future training funds for Iraq was tucked into an omnibus spending bill Congress passed earlier this year.

    For those keeping score, between 2003-2011, the United States spent $25 billion training the Iraqi Army. Some 3,000 American soldiers are currently in Iraq, re-training the Iraqi Army to re-fight Islamic State. The previously trained Iraqi army had 30,000 soldiers in Mosul, who ran away in the face of about 1,000 Islamic State fighters. The same thing happened in Ramadi, where 10,000 Iraqi soldiers fled ahead of 400 IS fighters.

    Could This Have Been Predicted?

    Professor of Economics at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University Chris Coyne, in an interview with me about a year ago even before the U.S. again sent troops into Iraq, predicted this exact scenario:

    The U.S. government provided significant amounts of military hardware to the Iraqi government with the intention that it would be used for good (national security, policing, etc.). However, during the IS offensive many of the Iraqis turned and ran, leaving behind the U.S.-supplied hardware. This weapons windfall may further alter the dynamics in Syria.

    Now the U.S. government wants to provide more military supplies to the Iraqi government to combat IS. But I haven’t heard many people recognizing, let alone discussing, the potential negative unintended consequences of doing so. How do we know how the weapons and supplies will be used as desired? What if the recipients turn and run as they have recently and leave behind the weapons? What if the weapons are stolen? In sum, why should we have any confidence that supplying more military hardware into a country with a dysfunctional and ineffective government will lead to a good outcome either in Iraq or in the broader region?


    Impact on American Policy

    And hey: A report prepared for the United Nations Security Council warns IS possesses sufficient reserves of small arms, ammunition and vehicles to wage its war in Syria and Iraq for up to two more years. And that presumes the U.S. won’t be sending more to them.

    The United States remains the world’s largest exporter of weapons.



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    Why the U.S. Will Fail by Winning in Mosul (and Tikrit)

    March 26, 2015 // 11 Comments »

    kobane

    The United States will most likely suffer defeat in Mosul, even if it “wins” against IS. And you can pretty much substitute “Tikrit” in the story below anywhere you see “Mosul.”

    The reasons will be much the same as those that caused the defeat of American strategy in Iraq War 2.0: a failure to force reconciliation among the Iraqi Shia, Sunni and Kurds.

    Some History of Mosul

    A little history, repeating itself. In April 2003, an entire Iraqi Army Corps in Mosul surrendered to a small U.S. Special Forces group. The city fell into disorder, with the Central Bank plundered and the university library pillaged. Sound familiar? Chaos ensued as Kurds fought both Sunni and Shia Arabs. The Sunnis, tribally dominant in the area, fought hard against the rise of Shia power emanating from the new government in Baghdad.

    During the occupation by the U.S. 101st Airborne Division in 2003, a 21,000-strong force under General David Petraeus pushed the Kurdish militias largely out of Mosul and created an uneasy peace with the Sunni tribes (Petraeus would revisit the idea as part of the Anbar Awakening.) Via his own military muscle and the skillful use of American reconstruction money, Petraeus tried to foster a governing structure that integrated Kurdish parties without alienating Sunni Arab constituencies. After Petraeus left, and as the war worn on and Kurdish influence began to exert itself in Mosul, the Sunnis turned to Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI; the precursor to IS) for support. Multi-sided fighting continued in Mosul, as the fundamental issue of which group truly controlled the city — as it was for Iraq as a whole — was left unresolved as the U.S. pulled out in 2011.

    Assault on Mosul

    The 2015 American ambitions to retake Mosul have made it to the front pages. Significant quantities of U.S. weapons are flowing into Iraq in anticipation of a large-scale assault.

    Sometime this year (maybe in the autumn or later) the U.S. hopes to organize 25,000 Iraqi troops, 12 full brigades, at least five of which have not even begun training yet, for the assault. Three Kurdish brigades will also join the attack, as well as an unspecified number of non-government Shia militias aided by whatever Iranian assets may be supporting them (now acknowledged to include elements of Hezbollah.) U.S. officials say there would also be Sunni force of former Mosul police and tribesmen who would enter the city once the Islamic State fighters are cleared out.

    Boots on the Ground

    U.S. forces on the ground will almost certainly be required to coordinate the many disparate elements on the “Iraq” side, as well as to call in close air support. Secretary of State John Kerry initiated the process of walking back the president’s pledge about no boots on the ground, speaking to the Senate Appropriations Committee in support of Obama’s request for authorization for use of military force against IS. Kerry said American soldiers embedded with Iraqi troops would not be in violation of the ban on enduring ground offensive operations. “If you’re going in for weeks and weeks of combat, that’s enduring. If you’re going in to assist somebody and [do] fire control and you’re embedded in an overnight deal, or you’re in a rescue operation or whatever, that is not enduring.”

    Assuming the logistics of moving 25,000 troops across the desert, as well as training, equipping, and sustaining them with food and water (difficult, and fully impossible without direct U.S. assistance and cargo flights) can be solved, the real questions about the upcoming Battle of Mosul are twofold.

    The Key Questions

    The tactical question. Will it become necessary to destroy Mosul in order to save it. Look at the victory in Kobane over ISIS. By all accounts, the over 700 airstrikes the U.S. conducted on a round-the-clock basis on Kobane devastated the town. The civilian death toll has never been calculated. No plans to rebuild the city have been announced. It is unclear what entity governs the remains. Some 230,000 refugees have fled. Photos of the place make it look like Stalingrad. As an activist in the ISIS capital of Raqqa wrote, “People don’t look at Kobani and see a defeat, because everyone had to leave and the Americans bombed it to rubble to win.”

    The greater strategic question. Who will control whatever is left of Mosul after IS is driven out? The American command and control efforts, plus American air power, needed to ensure the physical destruction of IS will be welcomed by all sides, as they are in greater Iraq. Less clear will be the reaction to follow-on U.S. demands that some of the victorious forces withdraw in favor of the others. The Sunnis controlled Mosul before 2003, and contested the space with the Kurds after that. The Baghdad Shia government then forfeited its claim to the city when the Iraqi Army cut and ran in 2014. It seems highly unlikely that the Peshmerga, especially after shedding blood to retake the city, will simply walk away and see the small paramilitary police force of Sunnis move in. The role the Iranians will choose to play is unclear. A fair number of Mosul’s one million residents support IS, leaving open the question of ethnic cleansing and score-settling.

    Sound Familiar?

    The United States continues to dig the same hole deeper in Iraq. It sees problems in a wholly-military light, focusing on an urban assault rivaling set-piece battles of WWII while paying little attention to the underlying political factors that will surely snatch defeat from any “victory.”

    Sound familiar?



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    Here you go America, another snapshot of your legacy in Iraq…

    January 29, 2012 // 6 Comments »

    I received this comment to an earlier posting about the problems Iraqis who had worked for the US Military and State Department were facing obtaining Special Immigrant Visas (SIV) to flee Iraq:


    Since I started working as a TERP for US Army back in 2003, I never had a normal day of life, specially I got married in 2004. I’m always having problems with my wife and relatives. I quit in 2004 before I got married as a condition to get a wife. But since I did, I could not get a job or look for a one, because I had to keep home to be safer and my family. I could not take any more, so I decided to get back to my TERP job in 2009. I moved my family to a village outside Mosul where I’m from, which is the stronghold of al-Qaeda in Iraq. The people in this village are very savage and they are ignorant that they comment on haircut most of times. The funny thing that they do not know about my job yet. I wonder what are they gonna say and do if they did?.

    Any way I’m unemployed now as the last unit I have worked with left, and the base closed last November 2011 and I’m bleeding money on the SIV application and hard life requirements in the semi safe village I live (no power-no safe water-far school-far markets-high prices for everything as a safe zone in Mosul-no JOB). I started working on my SIV application on January 2011. Scheduled to have US Embassy in Baghdad interview January 2012 this is one year and probably I’m gonna wait another year to get the visa this is if they issued one due to million rumors we hear about delaying and cancelling visas every day. I wonder what is going to happen to me and my family the comming time?

    I think everyone understands the fear from future and unknown and the stress outcomming from it. I will leave the comment to you. Thank you very much.


    So there you go America, another snapshot of your legacy in Iraq.



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    More Iraq Violence

    December 11, 2011 // 1 Comment »

    A nice, steady drumbeat of violence marking the end of the US military’s time in Iraq continues with nine killed Saturday.

    — In Kirkuk, a Shiite Turkman chemicals specialist for the state-owned North Oil Company was killed by a magnetic “sticky bomb” attached to his car.

    — Also in Kirkuk, a civilian was killed in a gun attack.

    — In Baghdad, a Sunni Sahwa member was killed and a policeman was wounded by a gun attack on a checkpoint in Saidiyah.

    — In Babil province a civilian was killed by gunmen.

    — In a separate incident in Babil, three people were wounded by two katyusha rockets that had been intended for a nearby US military base.

    — Two men were also killed in Diyala.

    — In Mosul, police said a taxi driver was killed by gunmen.

    — Also, in Mosul, a lawyer was gunned down as he left the courthouse.

    — A cop was killed in the same city, with witnesses stating that the deceased “had many shots in his body, which was thrown on the side of the street.”

    — Four Water Resources Department employees were kidnapped in Samarra.



    Otherwise, all full speed ahead towards democracy.



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    More Iraqi Freedom: 11 killed in attacks on Iraq security forces

    November 3, 2011 // Comments Off on More Iraqi Freedom: 11 killed in attacks on Iraq security forces

    Bomb and gun attacks against police and anti-Qaeda militiamen killed 11 people and wounded 38 across Iraq on Thursday, security officials said.

    Here’s a partial breakdown of the outburst of democracy wrought by America’s 2003 invasion (Arabic: The Gift That Continues to Give [Pain]):

    Parliament employee assassinated in west Baghdad
    11/2/2011 1:49 PM

    Gunman killed in Mosul
    11/1/2011 5:21 PM

    Soldier killed, 3 wounded in Anbar
    11/1/2011 5:20 PM

    Intelligence General escapes assassination attempt
    11/1/2011 5:16 PM

    Iraqi Christians express fears one year after Church attack
    11/1/2011 12:18 PM

    2 civilians killed in Anbar
    11/1/2011 10:22 AM

    Four soldiers killed in Diala province
    10/31/2011 5:32 PM

    Two soldiers killed in west Mosul
    10/30/2011 7:53 PM

    US forces should release detained citizen
    10/30/2011 3:25 PM

    Katyusha rocket falls on south Baghdad’s Jadririya district
    10/30/2011 1:31 PM

    US forces arrest Iraqi in aerial operation
    10/29/2011 8:09 PM

    Woman killed west Mosul
    10/29/2011 7:20 PM

    3 cops wounded in west Mosul
    10/29/2011 7:00 PM

    Soldier killed, 3 wounded in Falluja
    10/29/2011 5:34 PM

    Two goldsmiths killed, their shops stolen in Wassit Province
    10/29/2011 1:49 PM

    Large fire in Nassiriya Oil Storage
    10/29/2011 1:34 PM

    Govt Employee killed, 2 others injured in west Baghdad blast
    10/29/2011 1:33 PM




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    What 4,460 Americans Died For in Iraq

    June 13, 2011 // Comments Off on What 4,460 Americans Died For in Iraq



    Video from Tahrir Square in Baghdad this weekend, clashes between pro-Malaki (Shiite) forces and anti-Malaki forces (Sunni).

    Also this weekend, two beheaded in Mosul, five others killed in Basra, couple more in Baghdad.

    Hey Iraqis, you’re free! Go thank a Vet.



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