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The Next Stage of U.S.-Iran Relations
The U.S.-Iran War may be dwindling its final phase, though the durability of any ceasefire remains uncertain. So who won? As the kids say, it’s complicated.
Much of the discussion of the war’s meaning, even as it drags on, focuses on how it has already damaged Donald Trump politically. Lost in that pile-on is a more important question: what did the war produce? The answer may lie in the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding that may still someday mark the end of the fighting. However, the talk now is almost exclusively and presumably about how the war’s failure will help crush the Republicans in November. That misses at first that any missteps or any failures, or any successes, are America’s to reckon with for now forever forward, not simply some trite shot at a hated President. Wars belong to the nation, not to a particular administration. It may have once been called Johnson’s and Nixon’s war, but the Vietnam vets who still suffer today are America’s. The outcome of the Iran War should not be hooted and cheered as if it was another simple downturn in the polls.
So what does a fuller look at the outcome of the war tell us? History as always will be the final judge (as it will on whose agreement, Obama’s or Trump’s, was better) but the text of the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran points in a possible positive direction. If the MOU can be translated into actual day-to-day relations, it opens the door for a new pattern for two countries which have been at war with each other for decades in a regional, multigenerational, power struggle.
Chief among the hopeful parts of the MOU is Paragraph Eight, which states in part “The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled, enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in Paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the I.A.E.A.” If this works it means no nukes for Iran. It would sharply limit Iran’s ability to coerce its neighbors and alter the regional balance of power. It means ending the apocalyptic threat to Israel, always a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy. It means no future strikes by the U.S. or Israel to brush back Iranian nuclear plans. It means no Iran with fissionable material to sell or barter globally. Yes, the MOU wording is vague in places (but quite specific in others) and yes the Iranians have cheated on past agreements. But if Paragraph Eight can be effectively implemented it will justify the recent war by preventing future ones.
Another critical part of the MOU is Paragraph 7, which explains “The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, I.A.E.A. Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal.” This paragraph joins with several others regarding the release of Iranian assets held in U.S. banks and the removal of restrictions on Iran selling oil on the global market, to be the carrot on the no nukes pledge (the stick of course being the reimposition of sanctions backed up by B-2s). The heavy sanctions Iran has faced since the 1979 Islamic Revolution have raised the price of everything inside the country, and basically control the consumer economy. For example, after the reimposition of U.S. sanctions in 2018, Iranian oil exports fell sharply from roughly 2.5 million barrels per day to well under 1 million barrels per day for a period. Sanctions have restricted Iran’s access to foreign currency and the international banking system, weakening the rial. This has made imports more expensive and fueled inflation. Sanctions have all but shut off large-scale foreign investment, restricted access to needed medical and civilian aviation technology, and reduced trade.
What decades of sanctions have not done is stop Iran from its nuclear ambitions. Removing sanctions, in measured stages as Iran complies piece-by-piece with the no nukes pledge, will reintroduce Iran into the world economy. Peaceful trading with other nations has been the center of the world order the United States created following World War II. Bringing Iran into the system can lessen its need to suffer as a pariah country. Success here could possibly replace Obama’s Libyan no nukes disaster (surrendering strategic weapons leaves a regime vulnerable to later coercion) with a lesson that Cuba and North Korea might take note of.
There does exist in the MOU one loaded gun, something which could cause the rest of the MOU to fail. One hopes the final agreement between the U.S. and Iran dramatically revises Paragraph 5, which states “Upon the signing of this M.O.U., the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf.” It is possible to understand the U.S. conceding to this faint language at this stage to secure the rest of the agreement, but it is critical that Iran in the end not control the Strait by any means, including some sort of fee, insurance or toll system.
Granting any measure of control of the Strait to Iran would set a catastrophic precedent. At the post-WWII Bretton Woods Conference, Washington created an economic system that depended in large part on the United States Navy safeguarding global freedom of navigation, a principle that underpins international trade and economic stability today. By maintaining a forward-deployed presence in key maritime chokepoints and with carrier groups in all oceans, the world’s most powerful navy ensures sea lanes remain open in accordance with international law. No other nation comes close to being able to play such a role. Europe’s sea power has not been able to do so since the collapse of the British Empire, and China still lacks the sizable blue water navy and extensive world-wide base network to try. It would be strategically devastating for America to follow the regional empowerment of Iran through its failures in Iraq and Afghanistan by handing over a global lever of control. The opening of the Strait of Hormuz cannot become a bargaining chip. The consequences will extend far beyond the Middle East, reshaping the global order in ways the United States may not be able to reverse.
This war with Iran is not over but it has reached a stage where its ultimate significance can be decided. The MOU and what happens next shows the war need not be a waste, and that the outcome is still in play even as the guns fall silent. The verdict lies not on the battlefield but in whether the MOU survives implementation. That verdict remains unwritten.
Copyright © 2024. All rights reserved. The views expressed here are solely those of the author(s) in their private capacity.
Can the U.S. Win the Iran War?
“Tell me how this ends,” a young General David Petraeus asked early in Gulf War II, after the Iraqi Army had largely been defeated. The United States is extraordinarily good at the first half of wars and far less capable in the second. So how does this one with Iran end?
Gulf War I was fought on mostly contrived circumstances. Saddam Hussein thrived in power in Iraq in part due to U.S. support; he certainly survived the 1980s Iraq-Iran War due to behind the scenes U.S. involvement. But by 1990 Saddam morphed into a bad guy invading Kuwait, and the U.S. went to war against him supposedly to free Kuwait. Later we added on something about supporting the Iraqi people, but the real reason the U.S. went to war was to recapture and protect the oilfields, especially of Saudi Arabia. The U.S. was fully dependent on that oil, but our government could not say so, so white-washed all that happened with public justifications that obscured more material interests. We “won” that war by only fighting the part that really mattered to U.S. foreign policy, first half of it, the oil part, and declaring victory.
It is still contested why the U.S. fought Gulf War II, the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan following the events of 9/11. The stated goals shifted from counterterrorism to fake weapons of mass destruction to nation-building while broader ambitions of regional dominance remained in the shadows. Nation building proved a palatable sell to the American public. But the underlying reason for the war was hegemony, remaking the regional balance of power and surrounding Iran under what some came to call the Rumsfeld Doctrine. Ironically Iran did offer some sort of rapprochement in 2004 when it looked to them that America was going to be successful in both Iraq and Afghanistan and the entire U.S. military stood panting on Iran’s east and west borders. But that rapprochement did not happen, thanks to American hubris.
And now is Gulf War III. As before, the reasons on paper for this current war are unclear. Originally it was to free the Iranian people (sound familiar?) and then it was about nukes (remember that as a casus belli against Saddam?) but no one can really be sure. We picked up some ancillary reasons that did not exist a few months ago, specifically holding open the Strait of Hormuz and stopping Iranian harassment attacks against Israel and our Gulf allies. We also ended up with the job of assuring places we cooperate with economically like China, Japan, and India they don’t run out of oil.
You can walk this whole history back to the Carter Doctrine of 1980, which stated the U.S. would use force to protect American interests in the Middle East. Or 1979, the Islamic Revolution in Iran, when the U.S. lost the country as a military partner and oil supplier. Or even back to 1956, the Suez Crisis, which marked the handover of de facto power in the area from the decayed British and French Empires to the United States. Or perhaps 1945 when President Franklin D Roosevelt assured the safety of Saudi Arabia to secure access to its oil. Or maybe even Sykes-Picot in 1916.
But no matter what starting date you settle on, America’s strategy has been based on the idea that the Middle East is to be controlled by U.S. power. In various countries Washington selected then often abandoned dictators, supported nascent moves toward democracy only as long as they did not aim at overturning the broader status quo, fought wars large and small every 10-20 years as America’s domestic whims could be manipulated, sanctioned regimes, drew and discarded red lines, let the Russians in then kicked them out, etc. Yet the underlying assumption endured that with few exceptions nothing truly important happened without Washington’s say-so. Oil was once a powerful subtheme to all this but it is now down to pure power.
So the question hanging over the present U.S.-Iran war is whether we are witnessing the reassertion of American dominance or the continuation of its gradual displacement. The United States is still the meanest dog on the block. No nation can match our ability to destroy things, literally to erase a whole society off the face of the earth if we really wanted to. Even without our archipelago of bases worldwide, the U.S. can launch untouchable B-2s and other bombers from Missouri, bomb Tehran, and return them home safely. That is not the same as shaping what comes after, primacy. The way the Iran War plays out says in part whether the U.S. is indispensable in reacting to nascent nuclear states or directing events on the very largest scales possible as was envisioned in the post-WWII world. Hats off to those insightful men who saw the end of WWII as a chance to reshape the world as boldly as was done in 1776, but we have not been led by such men for many years.
So how does this end?
History says we’re still on the wrong path. We failed to fundamentally alter Iran’s behavior since 1979, despite sanctions and more sanctions, CIA hijinks as yet untold, aiming Iraq at them in the 1980s, and more. Gulf War I ended in a return to status quo for all the effort. The 2003 invasion shattered the Iraqi state, empowering Iran further. Afghanistan ended in a tail-between-the-legs evacuation. Libya demonstrated a) having an alliance with America means little; b) having a nuke is the only sure way to protect yourself in a world of hegemons and c) if the U.S. can’t win outright, it can turn you into a failed state if it wishes to.
If “winning” today means regime change, elimination of Iran’s regional influence, and an end to its nuclear ambitions, it is unlikely the U.S. can win. History has proven airpower and grave threats, basically 19th century gunboat diplomacy, cannot alone accomplish those goals. Decades of sanctions have not crippled the regime. Whatever internal dissent exists in Iran, it is unlikely to reach the point of regime change. Limited strikes (“mowing the lawn“) invite endless proxy retaliation and destabilizing acts. Iran has spent decades successfully resisting such pressure.
An alternative is a vicious military punishment, destruction on a scale that drives Iran away from regional power status. Even then the level of destruction would have to be fully crushing, something outside the bounds of American morality if directed against civilian targets, less so if the destruction is of Kharg Island or Iran’s floating oil reserves outside the Persian Gulf.
If war with Iran ends with a return to the status quo (Gulf open-ish, nukes delayed but not forever gone, Islamic government in power, etc.) it will send a clear message the U.S. failed again in its broader, historical strategy. Iran will be further empowered. Gulf states will be forced to diversify their diplomacy. Countries like China and India may be forced to expand their diplomatic efforts. Israel will steadily act more unilaterally. This all will happen slowly, carefully, evolutionarily, with much less of an immediate impact than MSNOW and The Atlantic will proclaim. Washington will hopefully back away from the illusion the United States can engineer political outcomes in societies it only partially understands, a lesson it should have learned from the Vietnam War.
We are not at the end of a war that Trump began, but in the midst of something bigger. America must now look past blame and towards how it will adapt to the encroaching next chapter in the Middle East. The pressing question is not really if the United States can win this war. It is whether it can recognize that the kind of victory it seeks is no longer practically available.
Copyright © 2024. All rights reserved. The views expressed here are solely those of the author(s) in their private capacity.
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